Checking in on the Optical Disc Market

Monday May 24, 2010

Pundits are fond of declaring death-by-Internet for physical media that play back movies and other popular video entertainment. There’s lots of access of Internet video programs on the desktop but most people want to see that directly on their TVs. Ironically, one of the most widely available ways to do that is with a Blu-ray Disc player with an Internet connection and a tie-in with a video internet site (such as YouTube, Netflix or VUDU).

Sony PlayStation 3 (more than 35 million shipped to date since the system’s release in November 2006) is probably the most prominent example of this three-feature ability in one device. Consumers can play a DVD or BD on the optical disc drive or they can watch a movie through their Netflix subscription. The industry prognosticators’ fondness of painting a black and white picture doesn’t quite fit in with this reality.

Declaring the disc dead is plain premature. The pre-recorded disc market is still shipping billions of DVDs around the world every year (over 5 billion shipped in 2009), and the Blu-ray market is about to rise up into the billions range in 2011 when it will ship 1.3 billion discs.

Why wouldn’t the latest crop of feature-rich Blu-ray players attract consumers who want access to Netflix, VUDU and YouTube and want to watch movies in the highest-definition available on the market. It seems like shelling out a few extra dollars for the full-featured BD players is a pretty reasonable value.

The rise in shipments of pre-recorded Blu-ray discs shows that people aren’t ditching their packaged media just yet. Instead, they’re buying Internet connected Blu-ray players to stream Netflix movies on, and at the same time they are still buying Blu-ray movies in disc form, fueling this still healthy market.

Source: DTC

For more information check out our Video Optical Disc, Devices and Media Report here:http://www.blogger.com/report_optdisc.aspx

The Great HDMI Cheat

Monday May 17, 2010 – Stewart Wolpin

If I were an A/V sales person, I would likely lose my job sometime this summer because I would try to talk customers out of buying an HDTV or A/V receiver (AVR).

And, quite frankly, every sales person with a conscience should follow me to the unemployment line.

Why? Because customers would be buying the AVR under false pretenses, believing they were getting a complete product.

They're not.

All new HDTVs and AVRs are (or should be) equipped with HDMI jacks supporting version 1.4a. Ostensibly, the 1.4 standard, adopted at the end of last year, enables the transport of 3D signals from the Blu-ray player through AVR to the HDTV. The spec was upgraded to 1.4a (and never has a lower case "a" been more important) at the end of February to support the cornucopia of broadcast 3D schemes.

HDMI 1.4a also includes three other benefits, aside from 3D support: Audio Return Channel (ARC), which enables AVRs to pass audio signals back from the HDTV through the HDMI to the amplifier (especially handy for Pandora or Rhapsody from a networked HDTV, or to more easily connect a soundbar), support for future 2K and 4K ultra HD standards, and, something called HDMI E C (Ethernet channel), the capability to pass Ethernet signals from HDMI 1.4 connected device to HDMI 1.4 connected device, which means all you need is one Ethernet connection to any of your HDMI 1.4 devices to bring Ethernet to ALL HDMI 1.4 connected devices.

The problem is, current HDMI 1.4a product supports only 3D and ARC. Chip sets included 2K/4K and HEC support are in production now, but I'm told by several AVR makers that they won't be complete until next year.

Which means all new HDMI 1.4a gear made and sold in the next 6-8 months will soon be obsolete.

Oh, cool your over-reacting, mock-indignitied jets, I hear you say. It's not that big of a deal.

Au contraire, my rationalizing friends. It's not you spending $3,000 on a new 3D home theater system, only to find out eight months from now that you're missing a critical piece no one bothered to tell you about.

What raises my dander is the lack of knowledge, not on the sales floor (we're all used to that bastion of misinformation serving as our industry's front lines), but among the actual makers of gear. In preparation for a large article I'm writing for a consumer magazine, I have interviewed several product managers, and I had to explain the differences between HDMI 1.3, HDMI 1.4 and HDMI 1.4a TO THEM.

I am depressed.

Will Google Have What It Takes to Succeed on the Set-top?

Monday May 10, 2010 – Antonette Goroch

The idea of getting TV content through an Internet STB is nothing new but Google’s plans for a TV platform gives the emerging trend a little more heft. It could also give the trend a lot more capital if Google is making a serious run at the TV. But will Google be able to transport its Internet hegemony into the home, or will this ultimately be yet another niche Internet TV product?

Google’s plan for an Internet STB is certainly not the only one out there. Indeed, the field of options is rather crowded for a category that ships only about a million units a year (and likely won’t ever get much bigger). Roku leads the pack with its Netflix box, followed by Apple TV and a handful of other CE manufacturers like Sony and LG. Ultimately, DTC believes that Internet TV platforms will get integrated into traditional STBs, hence our conservative forecasts for stand-alone digital content appliances (DCAs).

Although its reported partners, Sony and Intel, are making the first Google TV STBs, key to Google’s success will be its ability to proliferate its underlying platform into the many Internet connected devices now hitting the market. Already Google has indicated it intends to keep its platform an open one for developers, to facilitate iPhone-like apps that can add content and functionality without Apple’s proprietary limits. Further, it is reportedly working with satellite operator DISH Network on search/interface options for the pay TV context that could bring Internet like browsing to multichannel TV.

The details of the full initiative are pretty thin still, and those details are what will likely determine the platform’s ultimate success. But if Google is successful in establishing itself as a bridge between traditional pay TV content and “over the top” Internet content, the implications could be huge and shake things up for many established players across the value chain.

Source: DTC

U.S. Broadcast Mobile TV: The Experiment Begins

Monday May 3, 2010 – Myra Moore

One prominent argument against the success of U.S. broadcast mobile TV services goes something like this: Americans won’t embrace mobile TV because not many use public transportation, and that it is somehow culturally alien for Americans to watch TV on the go. It’s too soon to declare success or failure for broadcast mobile TV, but if it is ultimately unsuccessful, I doubt it will be for the oft-cited reasons above.

Assuming the primary use of mobile TV will be with public-transportation commuters seems short sighted. I can’t see why there won’t be some behind-the-wheel viewing (even if it’s illegal) of last night’s buzzer beater replay, or a local weather alert while sitting at the stop light. After all, being behind the wheel doesn’t stop a lot of people from texting (It may not be illegal in many places but it’s still a bad idea). And as for a cultural disconnect, watching TV is as American as apple pie. Even if folks aren’t watching while riding on public transportation, there’s standing in line, sitting on the sidelines, and surreptitious game watching at work. Don’t forget that the broadcast mobile TV market also addresses the “backseat” TV watching experience.

My money is on business models, content, handset integration, and quality of experience as the primary factors that will make or break the broadcast mobile TV market – not consumer rejection of the concept. The current mobile broadcast services – Flo services (handsets and backseat) and DTH satellite providers (DirecTV and Dish for backseat applications) – haven’t added up to much, but they only represent one business model and one type of content.

In the meantime, U.S. terrestrial broadcasters are about to weigh in with different business models and content with their initial experiments with mobile DTV, which is the mobile flavor coming out of the ATSC digital terrestrial TV standard. DTC’s recent research on available local broadcaster plans shows that there are more than 60 local TV stations that have aired a MDTV signal, or are purchasing equipment to test the system. This month’s OMVC Consumer Showcase being held in Washington, D.C. is a kind of coming out party for mobile TV from traditional TV broadcasters.

The Consumer Showcase is designed to give participating broadcasters (and the local TV broadcaster community at large) a read on how consumers will use the service and what they like and don’t like about it. What if they don’t like it? If so, I doubt it will be because they don’t want to watch TV while on the go.