Checking in on DTV Receivers

Monday March 29, 2010 – Shelby Cunningham

DTC’s recent forecast and analysis on the digital set-top box market estimates that

CAGR for digital STB (satellite, cable, terrestrial, IPTV and DCA) shipments will only register about 2% from 2008 through 2014. Any growth is welcome, but if 2% isn’t classified as “flat,” it’s definitely way inside the neighborhood of Flatsville.

DTV receiver shipments hit just under 208 million in 2009 and are expected to reach 217 million in 2011.

Source: Digital Tech Consulting

It’s not all bad (or flat) news, however. There are a couple of bright spots. The most growth will come from the IPTV sector. Despite the never ending proclimations of the death of over-the-air television, DTT STBs will continue to log healthy growth between 2010 and 2013.

DTT STB shipments will drop over the next couple of years now that the U.S. analog TV shut-off is over, but shipments will rise to about 55 million units in 2011 once many counties such as France, UK, Canada and Japan begin their analog shut-offs after 2011.

China fueled significant growth in digital cable STBs in 2008 and 2009 as many cable operators digitized their analog systems. Although growth will be tempered now that much of the infrastructure is in place, China will continue to fuel digital cable STB shipments during this forecast period. But digital subscriber growth in China is slowing. Expect future China shipments to come primarily from replacement and multiple box deployments. Replacement STBs in this mature system will help digital cable STB shipments stay fairly flat, dropping slightly from about 58 million units in 2009 to about 57 million units in 2011.

The Broadband and Broadcast TV Wedding: Don’t Look for the Invitation Just Yet

Monday March 22, 2010 – Myra Moore

Broadband internet is undeniably the most popular kid in the “hybrid TV” school these days. With terrestrial, satellite, and cable platforms flirting with the idea of letting broadband Internet access join their clubs, it’s no wonder hybrid TV was a prominent topic at the DVB World conference earlier this month.

The DVB Project has been in the business of getting different broadcast technologies to play together under one umbrella standard ever since digital video broadcasting began. Whether the DVB Project, or other standards-setting bodies, can extend that matchmaking ability into the IP world remains to be seen. The big matchmaking challenge, however, is among the agendas of all the potential players.

Consumer electronics device suppliers, pay TV service providers, pay and free-to-air (FTA) set-top box suppliers, FTA terrestrial broadcasters, middleware suppliers, content owners, next-gen ISPs, search-engine giants, and consumers all have a stake – and their own interests.

So, which one of the above gets to manage what comes through the internet pipe? Some interests want no restrictions on what comes through the pipe; others only want select web sites and programs to come through the pipe. Then there are those who just want to manage what makes it through the pipe with guides, Widgets and search engines. With the exception of consumers, they have one thing in common – they want to make money from delivering, receiving and/or managing what comes through the pipe. Consumers – they just don’t want to pay for it.

It’s doubtful that there is one interest here that will supersede all others. The recent news that Google is leading a team that includes Intel, Sony and Logitech to create a Google TV platform has some wondering if the Google Giant will have enough heft to be the money collector and the bouncer at the hybrid TV club’s front door. Maybe. But there are other computer/Internet based companies like Yahoo (Widgets) and Microsoft (Ultimate TV), who have created platforms designed to get the internet TV to marry up with broadcast TV platforms. None of those have yet transformed the way we watch TV. The two will probably get hitched one day, but we may want to settle in for a long courtship.

How far away is Pay TV on the 3D TV horizon?

Monday March 15, 2010 – Antonette Goroch

Now that HD and DVRs are mainstream in the large developed pay TV markets of the U.S., Europe and Asia; pay TV operators, chip makers and STB makers are casting an eye towards technologies that will drive new STB replacement cycles and premium content packages. It’s no surprise then that 3D TV is garnering increased industry interest, evident on the show floors of CEBit in Hannover, Germany this year.

But just how near is the 3D opportunity for pay TV and how big will it really be?

With 3D movies bringing in record box office results, it’s only natural that Hollywood aftermarket pipelines would soon follow with similar offerings. As 3D TVs, Blu-ray players and a handful of packaged media titles make their way to market this year (leaving trade show floors worldwide littered with sample 3D glasses), pay TV operators are gearing up to launch their own 3D channels in 2010-2011. But pay TV systems face particular inherent challenges to implementing 3D TV, which may make launching 3D more difficult, expensive and time consuming, than in the packaged media industry.

Only a few pay TV systems have announced plans for 3D TV so far: DirecTV (US), BSkyB (UK) and Foxtel (Australia). While these are set to offer a version of 3D TV which can utilize most existing HD AVC/H.264 STBs, this won’t be a full HD (i.e. 1080i to each eye) resolution quality version available via Blu-ray. Rather, the “frame compatible” method works by splitting a single 1080i frame into two right/left half resolution frames. Even this half resolution 3D will require a certain level of upgrade (and thus cost) for STBs via firmware at least, since the key enabling technology for this method is the only recently settled HDMI 1.4 (though the updated HDMI 1.3a can also do a version of this as well). And with this cost, it’s not entirely clear how many consumers will seek to pay a premium for 3D content of a lower comparative quality than other home media options.

To achieve a full 1080i to each eye experience, consumers will need a new STB with technology, probably the MPEG-4 based profile MVC, in use by Blu-ray, embedded at the chip level. Such boxes are not even on the market yet, existing only in demo state. Even chips are not yet available at price levels that make sense for commercial quantities. Further complicating matters, these chips must be specifically designed for the STB context to account for specifics like conditional access and DVR functions.

In reality, any kind of meaningful 3D pay TV is probably at least a few years away. Even then, it’s not clear whether this will be a mainstream tier product, or merely a small premium niche. Much will depend on the reception of the 3D TVs and Blu-ray players just now making their way into the market. Should these products prove particularly popular, pay TV operators may see greater incentive to invest in new STBs and more compelling 3D offerings more quickly.

3D Obfuscation

Monday March 8, 2010 – Stewart Wolpin

"-ready" – the scariest hyphenate in consumer electronics – is beginning to be indiscriminately slapped to the rear of "3DTV," officially opening the 3DTV obfuscation season. Or, as Elmer Fudd would put it, it's "3D-weady season," which somehow sounds more appropriate.

The "-ready" suffix should be familiar to most folks in the CE business. A decade ago, a burst of alleged HDTVs were confusingly labeled "HDTV-ready," a suffix everyone agreed didn’t mean, forcing the powers-that-be to precisely define "full" HDTV and ordered that HDTVs thus be labeled accurately.

As was the case with HDTV, the term "3D-ready" not only (and still) doesn't mean anything, it further muddies what is already confusing consumers about 3D. It also makes it twice as hard for those of us who have to try and explain all this when we first are forced staunch the misinformation hemorrhage.

It's really rather simple. Right now, there is only full HD 3D, which creates a 1080i frame for each eye. Full 3D HDTV can be achieved only with a 3D HDTV (not "ready" or "capable" or any other non-instructive descriptive suffix) equipped with HDMI 1.4 connectivity, connected to a 3D Blu-ray player with content encoded in MPEG-4 AVC/H.264 MVC (multiview video codec) and similarly equipped with HDMI 1.4. At some point, there may be half resolution 3D for firmware upgraded legacy HDMI 1.3 devices such as cable and satellite boxes, but none of these products or capabilities are on the immediate horizon and have nothing to do with the relative readiness of a 3D HDTV.

To watch this full 3D HDTV, consumers will need to wear active shutter glasses.

3DTV can be simplified further for consumers by removing all alphanumeric acronyms. All they need to know is: 3D HDTV + 3D Blu-ray + glasses = Avatar @home.

But as with HDTV, manufacturers and retailers seem to take a Looney Tunes approach to mis-explain their high-tech wares.

Take, for example, an email sent out to the media by a national retailer who shall remain nameless (okay, it was Sears) to announce the availability of two Samsung 3D LED LCDs and helpfully dispel three self-proclaimed 3D myths:

• Users are required to wear 3D glasses all the time. Yes, Panasonsungshiba, spend millions of dollars on advertising and marketing to let people know they can take off their 3D glasses when they're not watching 3D TV. Thanks, because I'm still wearing mine from when I watched Michael Jackson's "Earth Song" 3D video on the Grammys telecast last month.
• After watching 3D and taking off the glasses, regular TV content is going to be fuzzy. Millions worldwide have collectively spent hundreds of millions to watch Avatar in 3D, and not a single one of these Na'vi nerds found the world fuzzy after removing their 3D glasses. Blue, maybe, but not fuzzy.
• 3D TVs are going to be too expensive for the average household. This is not a "myth," it's reality. Many homes don't have a large screen HDTV for a good reason: even at $1,000, 42-plus inch HDTVs are too expensive for most, and 3D sets are going to be at the top end of the large screen pricing scale (the cheapest Samsung set on the Sears' site, a 46-inch model, is $2,600). And considering the hardships the economy is causing, trying to convince Mr. and Mrs. America that 3D HDTVs actually represent a good buy is, quite frankly, just plain insulting.

Worse, the Sears' Samsung 3D HDTV product page, consumers' first introduction to actual 3D HDTV sales spiel, mentions nothing about 3D glasses – not where to get them, not how much they cost, not that they have to be $100 active shutter glasses not cheap cardboard red-green glasses for anaglyph 3D or the Polarized sunglasses they snuck out with from the movie theater – not even that they'll need glasses. Imagine the first automobile salesmen neglecting to mention buyers would need to buy something called "gasoline."

Then there's Sears' "Making 3D Happen" FAQ page. First, there are headers for "Native 3D," "Virtual 3D" and "2D." "Native 3D"? "Virtual 3D"? I've been writing about 3D for more than a year, attending 3D demos and conducting intense Q&As with industry execs over the last few weeks, and I've never heard these terms. And I've not seen a single 2D-to-3D conversion that improved upon century-old stereoscopic postcard viewer.

And the first product descriptive term Sears' FAQ uses? "3D-ready HDTV."

Cue Elmer.

Navigating a DTT System and Analog Shutoff

Monday March 1, 2010 – Maya Jasmin

So where in the world is there still analog TV? Well, lots of places. Only in select Western European countries and the U.S. has there been analog shut offs, and there are definite lessons that can be learned from those transitions to aid other countries in the planning of a Digital Terrestrial TV (DTT) system or analog shutoff.

Although these shut offs have been relatively successful transitions, countries yet to make the leap must be careful when trying to emulate the processes used by the “shut off nations.” Each country must consider their own frameworks, which can be based on political will, government involvement, and the number of consumers using terrestrial TV services. Because of these added considerations proper planning is essential when deciding to make the transition to a DTT system as the slightest mistake can result in dire repercussions for a nation’s TV infrastructure and spectrum management.

There are several essential factors to consider when deciding if a digital transition is needed and what kind of timeline a nation should develop when planning a transition.

• Does it make sense to build a DTT System? While for many countries the answer to this question is yes, in countries where resources are limited and basic human needs are not being met a DTT transition may not be the best allocation of available resources. For those countries that decide transitioning is not a priority DTC believes that analog infrastructure will be supported well into the near to mid-term future.
• How do you begin building a plan and timetable? While no two countries’ plan and timetable will look exactly the same there are fundamental issues, including but not limited to technical, political, and fiscal realities, which need to be considered in every instance.
• Should integrating a DTT System with other digital platforms, such as mobile TV or radio, be considered? If yes, how will that affect standards and specifications selection? How will an integrated infrastructure be built?When addressing this issue, cost savings are the obvious lure, however planning authorities should be careful not to abandon practicality and efficiency in search of a less expensive plan.
• How do you select transmissions standards and technical specifications? Choosing transmissions standards and technical specifications can be complicated and many factors should be carefully considered when doing so. One important thing to remember however is that the selection of transmission standards and technical specifications are fundamentally intertwined.

Addressing these essential factors will help in deciding if it is time for an AtD transition and aid in the outlining of a plan for a DTT system. However, this only begins to scratch the surface in addressing all that is involved in planning a successful DTT system or AtD transition. DTC has written a free Essential Guide to Planning a Digital Terrestrial TV Systems and Analog Shut Off that answers many of the questions we’ve posed and you can download it here. Or contact Myra Moore at for further expert consultation.