Pocketcams: Between a rock and a hard place

Monday January 31, 2011 – Stewart Wolpin

Quick quiz: What product offers 1080p video recording and high-megapixel digital still snapping for less than $200?

If you guessed a pocket camcorder such as the Kodak Sport or a Sony Bloggie or a JVC Picsio, you'd be right. But so do several new digital cameras. And so do several Android smartphones (and I suspect in the annual iPhone update, iPhone 5 or 4G – or both – in June).

Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown, in this case pocketcams, which assumed the total overall sales crown from standard camcorders last year.

Compared to pocketcams, digital cameras with 1080p video recording offer superior still picture taking capabilites (obvious), better lenses (really obvious) and better optical image stabilization (not so obvious but really important to staunch the nausea induced when viewing unstabilized handheld footage is shown on a big screen.

High-megapixel/1080p smart phones' advantages over pocketcams also are really obvious – a user can instantly send photos and footage to friends or post to social networking sites, or will be able to send HD video footage once 4G networks become more prevalent. Oh, and smartphones make phone calls (as long as they're not on AT&T, he said sarcastically), too, and surf the Web, perform many app functions – they even open beer bottles.

I see a king quivering.

A camcorder war on two fronts

With threats to pocketcams' crown coming from two vastly better-equipped directions, the new camcorder king's reign may be short. Consumers might be enamored with Flip and its ilk for another year or so, but soon consumers will realize their digital camera and/or smartphones do everything a Flip can do, and much much more.

At CES, I queried a couple of pocketcam makers about this double threat, expecting some grandiose marketing pronouncements designed to boost both expectations and their own confidence in the future – and got mostly shoulder shrugs. They're aware of the double-whammy facing them and seem resigned to their fate.

That's not entirely accurate, actually. A couple of pocketcam makers are resorting to niche categories with new products, such as waterproof pocket cams – no waterproof digital camera at any price includes 1080p video recording and what'd be the point of a submersible cellphone?

And then there is 3D. Several pocketcam makers have or will sell sub-$300 3D pocketcams this year. (On a side note, I got a lot of double-talk hems and haws when I tried to discern the difference between $300 3D camcorders and $1,500-$2,000 3D models from Panasonic, Sony and JVC – that's one bizarre price differential. But I digress).

But fewer than 2 million suckers…er, I mean, consumers (slight error – I'm been reading a lot of Roger Ebert's 3D criticism of late) have bought 3D HDTVs. That's a really tiny constituency at which to aim a product.

No, pocketcam makers are going to have to come up with something/anything radical if they want to continue to rule the camcorder kingdom.

Stewart is Digital Tech Consulting's Senior Analyst.

Glasses-free 3D Still Years (and Years) Away

Monday January 24, 2011 – Stewart Wolpin

Do TV manufacturers not want 3D to succeed?

Just before Thanksgiving, I noted how 3D HDTV makers couldn't get retail 3D demos straight. Just before CES, I noted how 3D HDTV makers were further mucking up the 3D market by introducing passive 3D HDTV when consumers hadn't quite figured out or flocked to active 3D technology.

Then, at CES, several makers including LG, Sony and Toshiba, have completed the 3D HDTV idiocy trilogy by demonstrating glasses-free 3D, aka autostereoscopic. Toshiba devoted the enormous west wall on their booth to hyping a glasses-free 3D future.

Why demo glasses-free 3D? I know that you know that they know that we know that affordable glasses-free 3D is a chimera, a myth, a ghost.

What the TV makers aren’t telling you is that the technology and the pricing for glasses-free 3DTV is more than just a few years off of being ready for the mass-market retail floor. Yet hyping this chimera, this myth, this ghost could further paralyze consumers by building a false expectation of any-minute-now glasses-free 3D.

What is glasses-free 3D?

Basically, glasses-free 3D is accomplished by way of placing a filter in front of the LCD panel. This filter refracts or deflects the light from the LCD to create distinct left eye-right eye images. There are two types of autostereoscopic filters: a slit picket fence-like filter called parallax barrier or a circular filter called lenticular. (More specific definitions and explanations of parallax barrier and lenticular filtering can be found here.)

You could see artifacts of these filters in the varying glasses-free demos; many bore a faint resemblance to those "holographic" cards you used to get in Cracker Jack boxes. On most of these autostereoscopic displays, shifting slightly in one direction or the other shifted the image. They all had narrow viewing angles, some defined by footprints you had to stand in to see the full 3D image.

Of all the autostereoscopic demos at CES, the most impressive was a 24.6-inch OLED Sony. I could see no filtering artifacts of any kind – but then we were kept around 15 feet away from the small screen.

What about 2D?

One thing was missing from these glasses-free 3D demos – what 2D would look like. But I know that you know that they know that we know what 2D would look like through a filter – crap. Which means this current crop of autostereoscopic displays will never see the glaring fluorescent lights of retail.

In order for glasses-free 3D to work, the filters have to essentially disappear, which means they have to digitized. And the elimination of any remaining artifacts likely will need 4K x 2K resolution displays.

The necessary combinations of technologies isn't impossible – everyone concerned is working feverishly on them, and we may end up with one solution from Company A, a second solution from Company B and a third solution from Company C.

Why not show off new tech?

So, what's wrong with showing off future technology at CES? Two things.

One, I can't think of a case where a replacement technology was so highly hullaballooed immediately after the basic technology first went on sale. This is like saying to consumers, "Isn't this great? Don't buy it, though. Something better is coming." (Something better would be nice but do we really want more consumer confusion than is shown here?)

Two, it sets up false consumer expectations. 3D HDTV sales are, shall we say, lower than expected, only an estimated 1.8 million sets in the U.S. according to most sources. Consumers' major complaint: having to wear glasses in the living room to watch TV. Unpowered passive glasses are less odious, but they are still essentially indoor sunglasses – and according to Larry David, only blind people and a******* wear sunglasses indoors.

What do active shutter 3D plus passive 3D plus glasses-free 3D in the market equal? Consumer confusion and no one buying 3D.

Stewart is Digital Tech Consulting's Senior Analyst.

The Internet/Consumer Electronics Wedding: How will the couple share IP?

Tuesday January 18, 2011 – Myra Moore

There wasn’t a lot of technical innovation at the latest edition of the Consumer Electronics Show that concluded last week, but that is not unusual for a trade show that is supposed to focus on end products that can be shipped to retailers and TV service providers in the near future.

The real innovation wasn’t technical but was of the business variety. With the plethora of tablets, smart phones, and internet-connected devices, the annual meet up that used to have audio/video products at the center of its existence, felt more like an Internet-centric show than a consumer electronics show.

We all knew the Internet/CE nuptials were coming but the engagement period was long and we weren’t sure exactly when the union would take place. Let’s call January 6, 2011 the wedding date so we can start wringing our hands over how the couple will adjust to a shared and intimate existence.

This marriage will probably give a new definition to honeymoon if the union of phones and computers is any indication. Smart phones are the hottest intellectual property battleground for traditional IT, software and mobile phone companies. Tech giants like Microsoft, Motorola, Apple, Google, and RIM are suing one another over patent infringement as these converged devices use technology from varying industry sectors. Some of those companies take the stance that these converged devices are nothing more than mini computers and are infringing on IPR owned by software and operating system developers. So, now we can look forward to rival clans with different IP cultures thrown together at the next blended-family event.

Some of these disputes will be worked out with cross-licensing agreements, but judging from the smart phone litigation, some disputes will likely end up in court or in settlements. High-tech litigation is expensive and last week’s eye-popping announcement that Intel agreed to pay Nvidia $1.5 billion to settle a patent infringement suit illustrates just how high the stakes can be.

Patent disputes can drive up costs and slow down product availability – not to mention serve as a blunt instrument for gaining and maintaining market share. Maybe most of the battles fought over smart phones will preempt clashes bound to erupt over tablets and connected CE devices. The seemingly insatiable demand for getting internet-delivered content to all of our devices suggests that the sorting out of “who owns what” is only beginning. So much for the honeymoon.

A look into Video Optical Disc Drives

Monday January 10, 2011 – Maya Jasmin

The increasing availability of on-demand content from traditional pay TV providers, and more movie and TV programming available through the Internet and newly “apped-up” devices has the packaged media sector looking for a silver lining in the “new video distribution” cloud.

Of course, the DVD business is rapidly ceding its throne to Blu-ray Disc (BD) on the set-top, but how quickly will BD overtake the PC DVD business? SD DVD PCs will decline from 180 million units shipped in 2011 to just over 85 million units shipped in 2015. SD DVD players and recorders will experience similar decline. DTC estimates that roughly 62 million players will ship in 2011 with shipments dropping by nearly half in 2015 when 34 million units are estimated to ship. SD DVD recorders also decline sharply with only one million units estimated to ship in 2015. SD pre-recorded packaged media will also experience notable decline; the category is expected to experience a -14% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) between 2010 and 2015.

Even with the notable erosion of SD video optical disc drive products, high definition (HD) products are projected to experience significant growth. It is important to note however that DTC believes even though other content sources have indeed slowed growth within HD video optical disc product categories, they have in no way stifled it. BD PC yearly shipments are expected to nearly triple between 2011 and 2015. Nearly 66 million BD players and recorders are expected to ship in 2011 growing to 125 million estimated to ship in 2015. BD pre-recorded packaged media is estimated to experience a 50% CAGR between 2010 and 2015. While HD video optical disc products will likely never reach the heights of their SD predecessors, HD BD, will continue to keep video optical disc products relevant long into the future.

For more information on video optical disc products please visit DTC’s website where an update to our data intensive Video Optical Disc report will be available soon.