Optical Disc Shipments

Monday December 29, 2008

Here’s a little forecast snapshot as we look ahead to new video disc formats and how they will stack up against the highly successful DVD format. Growth of pre-recorded DVDs will continue to slow and take a sharp turn south by 2013. Only Blu-ray and other pre-recorded disc formats will log growth in the forecast period. In January, DTC will publish the third edition of its The Video Optical Disc, Devices and Media:Worldwide Shipmentsreport which is a data-intensive report that provides detailed worldwide forecasts of the Video Optical Disc devices and media market. DVD and Blu-ray devices, DVD PCs, video optical disc videogame systems, and pre-recorded discs are forecasted through 2013. For more information please contact us atinfo@dtcreports.com

Source: DTC

The New Camcorder Business

Monday December 22, 2008 – Stewart Wolpin

A consumer goes into a store to buy a camcorder. On one shelf are AVCHD or HDV camcorders from Sony, Canon, JVC, Panasonic and Samsung, which list for around $1,000.

On another nearby shelf are HD camcorders that are $250 or less, are about the size of a deck of cards, and look (and are) really simple to operate.

The consumer knows that the Sony, Canon, JVC, Panasonic and Samsung camcorders are better. But four times better?

I'm willing to bet two things. First, these cheap HD camcorders will sell as well if not better than traditional HD camcorders in Q4 in the U.S., and, second, they will come to dominate the worldwide camcorder business in the coming years.

Traditional camcorder manufacturers derisively refer to these cheap camcorders as "toys." But this dismissive attitude sounds achingly familiar to the way the Big 3 automakers dismissed the then-new tiny gas-efficient foreign imports back in the day. We all know how that hubristic attitude worked out.

These "toy" HD camcorders are a relatively new phenomena and their availability is mostly confined to the U.S. market at the moment. It's only been in the last month or so that Creative Labs announced its Vado ($229.99) and Flip its MinoHD ($229.99), and Kodak started selling its Zi6 ($179.95), all of which join the previously introduced DXG 567V ($179). All capture either 720p or 1080i video using H.264 compression to flash memory, either built-in, to a removable SD card, or both, run on a couple of AAs, have a tiny LCD view screen, a flip-out USB jack for simple PC/Mac connections and cheap plastic lenses.

These four models are likely to be joined by others from other manufactures, some well-known some unknown, and likely none from Sony, et al. As time goes on, flash-based "toys" will not only outsell higher-end HD camcorders, but $250-plus standard definition models from Sony, et al, as well. In a couple of years or so, standard definition camcorders will disappear and the all-HD camcorder market is likely to split similarly to the digital camera world. These HD "toys" will become the predominant point-and-shoot market while HD models from Sony, et al, become the analogous D-SLR high-end.

Like the digital camera world, consumers know that HD camcorders from Sony, et al, capture far higher quality video. But for a quarter of the price and point-and-shoot operational simplicity, the video these new "toy" camcorders capture will more than just suffice, and will become the camcorder business.

Will the House Brand Finally Win?

Monday December 15, 2008 – Shelby Cunningham

If the big-box discount retailers are the ones to sell the most consumer-electronics products in this recession-burdened holiday season, will the growing attractiveness of private-label store brands put big dents in market-share usually held by traditional consumer electronics brands?

The tanking economy coupled with big-box stores devoting more shelf space to private-label brands could upset the TV market-share apple cart. More shelf space inherently increases consumer visibility, and leveraged with cheaper prices and bigger screens for the buck, this may be the recipe that allows house brands to eat into that coveted market share generally occupied by household names.

Traditionally companies like Sony and LG win out with huge sales compared to store brands and lesser known brands like Trutech and Insignia. But discount retailers can drive greater profit margins with house brands especially in this times when consumers are ripe for bargain shopping. With some stores giving the off brands prime shelf space previously reserved for name brand products, perennial popular brands like Sony and LG may lose some market share.

A coworker admitted being tempted to buy a house brand TV while out Christmas shopping at a big box store just because it was so inexpensive. She resisted the urge because there wasn’t a need for a new TV in her home, but retailers are fostering similar interest from lots of consumers, and DTC expects that everyone won’t exercise the same discipline.

EchoStar Turns to Latin America for New Growth

Monday December 8, 2008 - Antonette Goroch

EchoStar’s recent announcement that it is forming a joint venture with MVS Comunicaciones, one of the largest media/telecom companies in Mexico, reflects both a maturing of the U.S. market for digital TV and the prospect of renewed growth in the Latin America market. The move, which involves the use of EchoStar’s 77° W orbital slot to offer a digital TV package into Mexico, DISH Mexico, is telling on several levels.

DISH Network (EchoStar’s DTH programming arm) has seen subscriber growth slow dramatically in the last year, driven by both saturation in the U.S. market overall and heated competition from both digital cable and IPTV. While EchoStar has been able to maintain revenues, through growth in ARPU for both subscription services and equipment from HD, its set-top box (STB) shipments and subscribers declined in 2008.

To combat these cyclical turns, DISH Network has sought to diversify its revenue base, seeking to increase STB sales through other channels, through new technology (all AVC STB, Sling Media acquisition), and new markets--even reaching out to U.S. cable operators, their one staunch rivals—to supply next generation STBs.

The MVS deal is driven by this same impulse to expand markets, and, interestingly, makes use of an orbital slot which EchoStar had originally petitioned the FCC to use for U.S. local-into-local and HD broadcasts. The alliance will give EchoStar a firm foothold in an area where the incumbent DTH provider, Sky Mexico (controlled by DirecTV after a merger with the News Corp entity four years ago), has operated with little competition from cable providers and has seen a recent uptick in subscription growth during the last year. MVS, which currently serves some 570,000 analog cable subscribers (which will be targeted for marketing the new service), will be a strong partner to EchoStar and will likely give DirecTV a run for its money.

For EchoStar, the benefits are clear. It will certainly gain a new foothold for its STB shipments and subscriber revenues in a far less competitive market. This will no doubt buffer the heavier competition and market saturation in the U.S. market, and help reinvigorate its bottom line.

Will Video Games Save Us in These Hard Times?

Monday December 1, 2008 - Shelby Cunningham

Video games consoles and games could be one of the few holiday shopping bright spots in this slowing economy. The category performed very well in the fourth quarter of 2007 when the U.S. recession began and DTC estimates that 49 million video game consoles will ship in 2008. Spending a minimal amount on a video game console for the home can be seen as a money saver in comparison to frequent family entertainment outings in these tough economic times. And with the frequently falling prices on the Xbox 360 over the past year, as well as the already low price of the Nintendo Wii, this is a viable option for many families.

Add in the fact that the Xbox 360 and Sony’s PlayStation 3 (PS3) play video optical discs (the PS3 even plays Blu-ray), and allow for movie streaming over the Internet, and you have an entire home entertainment center in a box.

The only console of the bunch that lacks video playback along is the Nintendo Wii. Yet with the already low price, unique product design and generations of Mario fans, Nintendo can afford to focus solely on gaming.

If and when I am ever in the market for a Blu-ray player I have already decided that a PS3 is the way to go. Multiple functionality is becoming increasingly more popular in the consumer electronics world. As is the case with the iPhone; sales are up and many owners say their phone is replacing their personal media player (PMP) as well as home internet service in some cases.

As long as Microsoft and Sony keep prices low and expand upon their console offerings outside of the video game realm they should be able to stay in the game and weather the economic storm. Giving people more options with their PS3 and Xbox consoles makes for more reasons to continue purchasing them. As for the Wii, if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it; Nintendo can focus on retaining its current business model and identify ways to expand upon the platform for their next generation console and should remain on top of the video game console world.

Will Internet TV’s Rising Tide Raise All Boats?

Monday November 24, 2008 - Antonette Goroch

New media technologies always bring with them the specter of cannibalizing existing markets for existing players. Certainly this was the case with the introduction of the DVD, and television before that. The more recent rising tide of Internet TV is no exception to this rule.

In the case of Internet TV, the specific reasons for this fear, of course, are multifaceted, ranging from content protection to the disruption of existing content distribution chains, but the core issue is the same: new technology holds opportunity, but core assets must be protected.

For years this fear has led to reticence among mainstream content providers in really embracing the potential of Internet video distribution. But, as we’ve discussed in this space before, there has been a sea change in this trend during 2008, with a variety of basic cable network, broadcast network and major studio movie content now available through multiple sources on the Internet, whether free/ad supported (Hulu, Joost), pay-per-view (Amazon.com), or pay per download (iTunes).

Not surprisingly, with this expansion of content availability, Internet video usage has grown significantly. A recent IBM survey of 2,800 consumers in six countries, conducted online in the third quarter, found that 76% of people have watched Internet video in 2008 compared with just 60% in 2007.

Has this diminished traditional TV viewing? The major broadcast networks say it has not, citing TV viewing across demographics as being up 8% since 2000. NBC recently stated it had record viewership of 214 million during the 2008 Olympics, even with 3,000 hours of video available online. While still too early to say, it appears that Internet video will likely serve to grow the total viewing audience across platforms, rather than cannibalize existing ones—as was the case with both the DVD and the TV.

Still, its effect on the overall market is likely to be a dramatic one in certain key respects. Branding will become increasingly important as viewers seek familiar content across platforms. The ability to time shift with more on-demand availability is also likely to continue to increase in importance as viewers become more accustomed to a personal level of control. Ultimately, it will be the ability to adapt to these changing tides, not prevent them, which will prevent cannibalization.

Mobile DTV Coming

Monday November 17, 2008 – Stewart Wolpin

Details are beginning to emerge on the upcoming Advanced Television Systems Committee-Mobile/Handheld (ATSC-M/H) standard, AKA mobile DTV.

Once implemented, ATSC-M/H will enable consumers to receive local digital TV broadcasts on a variety of devices via either a built-in tuner or an add-on tuner dongle.

ATSC-M/H, based primarily on technologies from LG and Samsung, is currently in the "Candidate" Standard period and is being voted on by ATSC members. The balloting closes Nov. 25 and the standard is expected to pass, which opens the door for immediate product development.

Even though it has not been ratified yet, the broadcasters are already performing field testing. And equipment suppliers are already developing receivers and infrastructure equipment. The accelerated time table is designed to get mobile broadcast on the air as early as possible in 2009.

Expect to see product prototypes at CES, products which could include the first cellphones and Portable Media Devices (PMP) with built-in ATSC-M/H reception capabilities, USB dongles to enable laptops to be used as TVs, or even standalone handheld mobile DTVs.

The The Uncertain Future of FireWire

Monday November 11, 2008 - Antonette Goroch

Hollywood holds the power when it comes to the future of FireWire. But is this fast transport technology too fast for movie studios afraid of piracy?

FireWire is technologically superior for moving video when compared to other available options such as USB or HDMI. Unlike the bulky, uncompressed video of HDMI, FireWire compresses the video, making it far more versatile and fast in its transport. Unlike USB, which is tethered to the computer or host in its use, FireWire allows device independence and does not require a computer to “control” the interaction between devices.

One might think these attributes would make FireWire a favorite of CE companies, but Hollywood’s cool reception and higher chip costs have resulted in a dwindling use of FireWire in TVs and other CE products. Because of this, USB and HDMI have become ubiquitous in digital video products across the spectrum of HDTVs to set-top boxes, computers and peripherals, while FireWire has remained confined to a niche of high-end professionals/prosumers who work with video.

The one exception to this is in the U.S. digital cable market, which carries an FCC mandate that FireWire (and HDMI) be included in all HD STBs. While all other deployments of FireWire in digital STBs have been halted, the U.S. market has been quietly amassing a rather large installed base of FireWire STBs. Indeed, between the FCC requirement and the aggressive promoting of HD by cable operators, DTC estimates than nearly half of the digital cable installed base currently has at least one HD FireWire STB. Despite this, FireWire remains largely unused in the majority of these households, except by enthusiasts willing to seek out the needed drivers to make it work (somewhat ironically, the most likely group to engage in piracy).

The looming question is whether or not cable MSOs in the U.S. will begin to seek out ways to eliminate the 1394 requirement with the FCC. After all, why should they include the extra cost if it is unused? To date, they have not shown an interest in pursuing that, but it remains an open question for the longer term.

In the meantime there are still those that would like to see Hollywood’s fears assuaged and the potential of FireWire in the home video context realized. The most likely scenario is through the High-Definition Audio-Video Network Alliance (HANA). The association, formed in late 2005, showed promise during 2007 with members such as Samsung, Cablevision, Charter, JVC, Mitsubishi, NBC Universal, Sun Microsystems, Texas Instruments and Warner Bros. throwing their support behind the HANA effort. Despite these efforts, no actual products have shipped commercially to date. A new reference design unveiled in August, which more tightly integrates Internet content delivery within the coax environment, could breathe in new life. A cornerstone of the new design is ASCCT, a copy protection technology from IBM, which allows security and managed copying among both new and legacy HD products.

One thing is certain, though FireWire’s attributes are clear, the ultimate success or failure of FireWire in the home video context will ultimately rest with Hollywood’s approval. If this occurs, the U.S. cable market may provide a model for interoperable, networked HD home video products in growing markets worldwide.

Is There Life Left in the Video Optical Disc Recorder Market?

Monday November 3, 2008 – Stewart Wolpin

When DVD was first introduced a little more than a decade ago, it was assumed that recordable DVD, when it dropped in price sufficiently, would replace the VCR.

But a funny thing happened on the way to DVD recording price viability – well, actually, a couple of things. The DVD recording format was beset by a recording format war (remember "plus" v. "dash"?) which was followed by the introduction of the DVR, both events occurring around the turn of the century (the 21st).

By the time the DVD-R format war was over and DVD-R hardware prices had dipped to popular price points, the DVR, had effectively replaced the VCR. After a couple of years of robust sales, sales of DVD recorders have steadily declined the last couple of years. In 2007, sales of DVD recorders represented 9% of all non-PC DVD hardware sales, dropping to an estimated 7% this year and an estimated 6% in 2009.

Source: DTC

Most of these sales are in the DVD-R-mad Japanese market. Only a half dozen companies even stock multiple DVD-r SKUs – Panasonic, Toshiba, Sony and Philips.

Blu-ray seemed at first to follow the same path as DVD as far as recording is concerned. The introduction of play-only BD players immediately sparked speculation of the introduction of BD recorders. But with the U.S. market buying into DVRs, manufacturers have felt no compunction to bring Blu-ray recorders to market anywhere but in Japan, Australia and other limited Pacific Rim markets.

Until now. At CEATEC in Japan last month, Panasonic, Pioneer and Sony each announced enhanced Blu-ray recorder models, most with 1394 connections for transfer of MiniDV footage, or at least that's what we assume.

While Sony's six models are intended only for the Japanese market, Pioneer and Panasonic have both announced their intentions to market Blu-ray recorders in Europe sometime this year in limited markets; Panasonic's deck is targeted only for France, for instance. There also are reports that Panasonic will be the first to sell a Blu-ray recorder in the U.S. in the first half of next year.

How will BD-R decks be received outside of their current comfortable Pacific Rim markets? Probably not enthusiastically.

Obviously DVRs already occupy the place of VCRs for both standard and high-definition recording. Many high-end PCs include BD recording capabilities to fulfill video editing needs. While BD-R deck prices have dropped to less than $1,000US (a Sharp model is selling for $899US, but most of the new models will be priced much higher) sales are likely to be low. A new Panasonic BD-R deck currently sells in Australia for $2,299AUS. The worsening worldwide economy and the precipitous drop in the U.S. dollar won't help matters, either, especially in the U.S.

Blu-ray recorders will likely generate some initial excitement if and when they arrive in Europe and the U.S., but they likely will occupy only a niche market.

Convergence and the Personal Media Player

Tuesday October 28, 2008 - Shelby Cunningham

Everywhere you look someone is trying to cram more functions into a single device. From cell phones that moonlight as music players, to video game systems that playback high definition video, all the way to refrigerators with built in televisions and internet access, convergence is all around us. The reasons and benefits coming from convergence are obvious, but will all consumers buy into this obvious and efficient trend?

Apple introduced an MP3 player that also played video to the masses in late 2005, and since then sales of Personal Media Players (PMPs) have exploded. And now the PMPs have morphed with the mobile phone. Despite the popularity of the iPhone and other Swiss Army knife-like devices, the stand-alone PMP market is still quite strong. In fact it is rapidly taking over the audio-only player.

The PMP market will continue to grow over the next four years, going from 60 million in 2007, to 107 million in 2011. Video capable PMPs will become increasingly more common as the cost to add the capability to PMPs goes down and consumer demand goes up.

Source: DTC

It’s going to take a lot more than just the availability of these devices for convergence to fully take over. Yes, I am aware that my iPhone doubles as an organizer and an iPod, but I haven’t loaded a single song or video onto it. Why is that? It could be because my dedicated iPod is still in good working condition, or maybe I’m afraid of losing everything at once if the device fails, or just don’t yet think of my phone as a place to listen to music and watch movies.

For the next few years people are going to continue to carry multiple devices around when they could carry one fully converged device despite the convenience and efficiency. It could be that consumers will replace dead iPods with a multifunction device rather than another basic MP3 player. People have already begun to use their PlayStations as home entertainment centers, so it’s not as if they don’t get the two-in-one concept. Consumers will eventually get used to having one handheld device rather than two or three, but for now the PMP market has nothing to worry about.

Over Over the top with mobile broadband

Monday October 20, 2008 - Antonette Goroch

As mobile carriers compete for bigger and better content offerings, is it the big companies or the consumers who benefit in the end?

With some 3 billion worldwide users, the mobile content delivery platform is coveted territory. To date, service providers have been strict gatekeepers with their subscribers, reaping the huge profits from an array of ringtones, screen savers and games. The next frontier, of course, is video content, and already there are a growing variety of mobisodes, TV episodes and even movies available from virtually all carriers. With the advent of mobile broadband the next frontier could be far more complicated.

The idea of “over the top” content delivery (bypassing the service provider network) has been simmering in the world of pay TV for some time, as operators seek to balance the advantage of offering broadband data services with the possibility that users could begin to use that connection to get content competitive to regular pay TV packages. Mobile operators are now doing a similar balancing act, seeking to make use of 3G and 4G network infrastructures for attractive mobile broadband access while trying to make the most out of direct content sales. Some providers, such as Sprint, have embraced the idea of “open access”, using the availability of third party Internet content as a selling point, while others, such as Verizon, have limited access to mobile broadband and seek to beef up their own walled garden of content.

The momentum is unmistakable, though. Mobile broadband users grew from just 11 million last year to more than 50 million in 2008 and are growing at about 4 million users per month, according to the mobile industry trade group, the GSM Association. Regardless of how operators choose to slice the pie, DTC believes that the big winners in this equation will be consumers, who will have access to far more content than any walled garden could ever provide.

Can’t we just download at home?

Monday October 13, 2008 – Stewart Wolpin

Toshiba will not be joining the Blu-ray camp any time soon. Considering how much high-def content is now being downloaded, streamed and available via broadcast, this is probably not a bad strategic decision.

While Blu-ray remains the hottest and highest-quality movie playback system, DTC estimates that the non-PC Blu-ray devices will only account for around 12% of the total video optical disc devices market by 2010.

Instead, the former HD DVD hawker is investing, along with MOD Systems and NCR, in a new HD download/streaming system to take advantage of this content download trend.

It may not be the technology, but the logistics of this new system that raises questions about the strategic soundness of Toshiba's new non-HD DVD, non-Blu-ray direction.

MOD Systems and NCR are developing retail kiosks to enable consumers to download and transfer video content to a variety of portable devices compatible with Windows Media DRM and native SD security (i.e. not iPods or iPhones) and/or to SD memory cards. The theory? Philips executives say that they believe that SD slots will be pervasive in all consumer electronics devices.

MOD Systems is currently in discussions with all major studios for video content. Pilot systems will go into operation later this year and the full launch is scheduled for Spring 2009. MOD Systems' goal is to deliver content to the consumer within three to five minutes.

Initially, content will be available only in standard definition, but the service may also be applied to downloads of high definition content in the future, Content will be encoded with Windows Media DRM and native SD security.

Early next year, Toshiba will unveil a new set-top box to play back these store-burned SD cards.

We have a lot of questions. First is cost. A consumer will likely need at least a 1 GB card to store most of these compressed high-definition movies, probably 2 GB. The cost of a 1 or 2 GB card combined with the cost of the content could cost around the same as a Blu-ray disc. That's without knowing the comparative quality, availability of content extras, playback on other non-Toshiba compatible devices, and DRM issues.

But the biggest fly in this digital ointment is the "go to the store" part.

The appeal of downloading content rather than purchasing a pre-packaged standard definition DVD or Blu-ray is the convenience of acquiring high-definition content without leaving home.

Admittedly, this is a gut-reaction to a single thin-on-details press release and other equally-deficient news reports. We'd like to see a bit of the blanks filled in. But we can only hope Toshiba at least includes a download-at-home component to this SD scheme.

Content Providers Fuel Internet Growth

Monday October 6, 2008 – Antonette Goroch

After scatter shot and mostly token efforts to make their content available over the web, mainstream TV and movie programmers are finally taking the Internet seriously. The Internet won’t displace DVD and pay TV as a primary distribution channel, but most traditional content providers now recognize that the Internet will someday be a big dog on the content-distribution block.

The 2009 fall TV season marks a turning point for Internet video with a record number of new/first run movie and TV titles available, and additional ways to purchase and view content. This will go far in breaking down select barriers standing in the way of commercial success for Internet video content.

Last year, the Apple iTunes store dominated the pay-per-download movie market with nearly 70% marketshare, and was virtually alone in offering TV episodes from basic cable networks, accounting for some 90% of video downloads. This year Apple has beefed up its movies and cable network TV show library and now includes rentals. Apple is joined by the Amazon VOD store, which offers a library of first-run TV and movies for purchase or rental. Meanwhile, companies like Hulu and Joost, as well as TV networks, are offering a variety of free, ad-supported TV episodes and clips. Content providers are releasing the same libraries across these outlets, timing these releases with other pipelines (such as broadcast or pay TV). In essence, they are now conceding that the Internet is a viable incremental distribution channel instead of just a threat to their existing business.

The “net conversion” isn’t complete, however. Most web offerings fall under the “walled garden” business model and a lot of content is confined to the PC. But the shift is clear. Many mainstream content providers now have coherent strategies for Internet distribution that include high-quality content both in terms of video quality and production values. This is certain to drive usage and help make the business case for commercial video over the Internet, which will be key in compelling content providers to further loosen the reins on their online offerings.

Android G1 - What will it mean for mobile video?

Tuesday September 30, 2008 - Stewart Wolpin

Even though the first Google Android phone has been unveiled – the T-Mobile G1 – there are still many questions about both its initial and its ultimate functionality and capabilities.

After a brief exploration of Android, there seems to be a lot of function and capability missing. But the theory is developers will write programs addressing any consumer needs or desires and the Android operating system itself can be upgraded.

All of this speculation is premature, however. There's still a month to go before the G1 is actually available (October 22) and the Google Android Market application download store opens.

But what can we project about how Android will affect the video download and streaming market?

In the short term, it will have little affect. First, the G1 is merely the first Android-powered device. There certainly will be more, including some non-mobile phone devices. An Android-enabled cell phone is due out from Sprint early next year, but there haven’t been any announcements. And while Verizon has aligned itself with LiMo, the Linux open source mobile OS, and AT&T has the iPhone, nothing stops either carrier from adding an Android phone to their portfolio in the future. Critical mass will be, well, critical, for Android to have an impact on the video download or streaming market.

Second, Google has partnered with Amazon for music and video purchases. It makes sense, therefore, that Amazon has already confirmed an Android mobile music and video store.

It'd be better for their partnership and Amazon's aim to compete with iTunes, if the Amazon video player were part of the Android operating system rather than a separate application, but it's way too early to speculate on how this will, excuse the pun, play out. Developers also are likely to build CinemaNow and Netflix player apps, or apps to play back QuickTime, and DivX files, but who knows when – or if – that'll happen.

What we can project is that Android's ability to impact Apple's hegemony over the downloadable movie marketplace is hampered by the G1's carrier.

T-Mobile, with around 30 million subscribers, is the smallest of the four major cellphone carriers. AT&T, the largest, has around 65 million subscribers. So not only does iPhone have a 10 million unit installed base head start on the G1, the iPhone's potential sales base is more than twice as big, at least in the U.S., as the G1.

Also, T-Mobile just launched its 3G HSDPA service in the U.S. 3G is an absolute necessity for downloading large video files over-the-air to an Android device. Right now, T-Mobile has 16 3G markets active, and plans to have 22 when the G1 launches and 27 by mid-November. That's fine, but AT&T has more than 300 3G markets, and likely 350 markets by the end of the year.

Downloading movies to your desktop for transfer to the G1 may not work, either. Even if the G1 included the correct DRM technology, there is no Android desktop syncing program a la iTunes to ease content transfer.

Of course, someone – even Google – may build an Android desktop syncing application, along with all the other necessary video decoders for playing back the wide variety of video content available.

The nature of Android itself – a completely open operating system – could cause a seismic shift in the portable media player and downloadable video marketplace. In two or three years, Apple and iTunes may be fringe providers, overwhelmed by a flood of Android-powered devices and the availability of myriad downloadable video streaming or player apps.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves. At the moment, Android provokes more speculation than actual business. Steve Jobs can sleep soundly, at least for a little while.

Checking on DTT in South America

Tuesday September 23, 2008

South Americais off to a slow start in getting digital terrestrial TV (DTT) off the ground. Multiple transmission standards are being chosen and receiver costs are high in a region where price sensitivity is a primary factor. Brazil is the first country to finally begin the process, and it chose a slightly modified version of Japan’s ISDB-T standard. To date, no other South American country has chosen this standard, which calls into question how much cohesion can exist in the region.

Last week Colombia announced that they have chosen the European-centric DVB-T as its standard, with the hope that other countries would go that route as well.

To date, set-top receivers in Brazil carry price tags up to $800 a box. But that barrier is set to be cleared as suppliers say they are readying affordable set-top boxes for shipment in late 2008. As prices drop, shipments of DTT set-top boxes to Brazil will increase about 77% between 2008 and 2009.

Source: DTC

Will smaller undecided countries follow Brazil or Colombia as they evaluate transmission standards? Or, will they follow their Northern neighbors, Mexico and U.S., and consider the ATSC standard? Many countries are in the undeclared camp. Right now it looks like South America could be left with a mixed bag of standards.

Content Explodes on the Mobile

Monday September 15, 2008 – Antonette Goroch

The spotlight is now on mobile content after the initial buzz of network capacity and devices. The next focus should be on getting the business model right.

This was evident at the CTIA wireless show in San Francisco this week, with an array of announcements and initiatives for the U.S. mobile market focusing on more video content, more open mobile networks able to draw on the ever increasing wealth of web content, and more tools for personalization/social networking facilitating user generated content.

Verizon, for instance, had no new handsets to announce, but rather focused on the new video channels it was adding to its V Cast service, including new on demand access to shows like The Office, CSI, and The Hills. AT&T, meanwhile, announced a new “my communities” feature which allows users to access and manage all their social networking, such as Facebook and MySpace, through a single mobile access point. Add to this a variety of new tools and browsers for third party developers of all sizes to create content accessible across all mobile platforms, and you have a content explosion waiting to happen. You can see why this is just the beginning of the content revolution on the mobile device.

The quest for the right business models is still incomplete. Operators have experimented with pay video content services in the U.S., but uptake has been modest due to high prices and relatively little content up to this point. DTC estimates that there are only 6-7 million pay mobile video subs in the U.S. currently. The mobile video experience abroad suggests that free, ad supported models are the ones which can really drive penetration, but the volume of U.S. mobile video users has not yet been large enough to really stimulate advertiser interest in the medium here.

Source: DTC

This could all change over the course of the next year, however, as this plethora of new content and tools is bound to drive consumer interest and video usage overall. The real challenge is monetizing it into a sustainable business