Cable Says Goodbye to FireWire

Monday July 26, 2010 – Antonette Goroch

Now that the FCC has lifted the 1394 mandate for cable), operators may want to wait on popping the champagne corks as the “broadband happy” FCC plans to mandate an IP interface that would open the door to more over-the-top (OTT) programming. After five years of forced inclusion, cable operators in the U.S. will no longer need to have FireWire (IEEE 1394) interfaces in their HD STBs.

The implications of this are likely two fold. First, the pace of cable HD expansion in the U.S. is likely to quicken as cable operators further deploy HD STBs. Although there has already been considerable momentum in cable HD for some time, this will only hasten that trend as operators will now be able to lower the basic bill of materials for their HD STBs by a significant margin.

The second implication is slightly less clear. In place of the 1394 requirement, the FCC is now mandating that HD STBs have IP connection capability instead—facilitating the same goals of interoperability and networking with a more accepted market standard. This is certain to fuel the wave of OTT content providers that have already made their way to the SSTB, threatening to upset existing pay TV business models and value chains. So while cable operators are throwing off one challenge to their business (a useless, government imposed cost), they may be now facing a far greater one—addressing a radical shift in their role as a content aggregator and gatekeeper.

Source: DTC

In 2005, the FCC mandated that all HD STBs must have the 1394 interface, with the intent of spurring greater networking and interoperability capabilities in next generation devices through standardization. Over that time, while cable operators have for the most part complied, the marketplace decided overwhelmingly against 1394 as a next generation interface. With few CE devices making use of 1394, the interface has remained largely unused, becoming a pointless expense for cable operators more interested than ever in cutting costs. Indeed, cable operators in all other world markets dropped the interface years ago, as did other pay TV platforms, opting for HDMI only for HD interface.

Digital Camera: R.I.P.?

Monday July 19, 2010 – Stewart Wolpin

As my wife and I prepared to go out on the 4th of July, she asked if I was bringing along a digital camera. "Why?" I asked. "I have my iPhone 4, which will be fine for the outdoor pictures we'll be taking."

I have a feeling we won't be the only family making the decision to leave our point-and-shoot digital camera or camcorder at home in the coming months and years. Suddenly, 5 megapixels is becoming a baseline for cellcams and 720p for cell video recorders on the next generation of superphones such as the iPhone 4, the Sprint HTC EVO, the varying HTC Incredible, and, this week, the Motorola Droid X from Verizon and the first of four Samsung Galaxy S models, the Captivate for AT&T.

It's not that a cellcam, regardless of how many megapixels manufacturers mash into them, are better than a standalone digital camera. They're not, not by a long shot, although the imaging technology in the iPhone 4 is a major step forward, especially with the front-facing camera for self-portraits that, I found on the 4th of July, is perfect for couples and scenery. But the qualitative image difference between a standalone digital camera and a cellcam, especially for outdoor daylight photos, isn't as stark as it used to be. And, if history has taught us anything about consumer behavior, it’s that convenience is the single highest determining factor for technology adoption. And as my personal experience attests, if we can get away with carrying one less piece of technological bric-a-brac, we will.

In the next few years, sales for both point-and-shoot digital cameras and camcorders such as the Flip, could plummet as fast as personal navigation devices have in the face of cell phones including equal-to or better-than navigation apps.

Digital cameras are the most vulnerable short term to the cellcam effect. Despite constant improvement and lower prices, shipments of digital cameras are expected to fall 5% percent in 2010 and 10% in 2011. Cellcams offer one major advantage over higher-quality digital cameras: the ability to immediately send just-snapped photos to friends, family and Facebook.

Source: DTC

Long term, Flip and other sub-$200 pocketcams are even more cell phone replaceable. The qualitative difference between footage from a (relatively) cheap pocketcam and a 720p cell video recorder are minimal. Since you're carrying your cell phone anyway, wouldn't you rather leave home one piece of redundant gear? Of course you would, and so likely will a lot of people.

DTC projects shipments of MPEG-4 AVC camcorders to rise in the next few years, from just under 6 million units in 2010 to almost 9 million units in 2011, due to the transition from high-end units to low-cost flash media units. This growth is sure to be adversely affected by the growing number of superphones with 720p video capture capabilities.

It’s undeniable that better cameras/camcorders in superphones will have an impact on the single-use device sales, but keep in mind that superphones will only represent a small set of the overall mobile phone market for the near term. Stay tuned.

Mobile Devices Dominate the MPEG-4 AVC Market

Monday July 11, 2010

The MPEG-4 AVC codec may be improving compression for digital video devices such as set-top boxes (STBs) and Blu-ray Disc devices, but the number of mobile devices compatible with MPEG-4 AVC far outweighs those more traditional digital video products.

Many consumers now expect their portable devices to provide high-quality video and most mobile devices are using the latest MPEG open standard to meet that expectation. In short, the latest MPEG codec has done a lot of the heavy lifting required to spread the analog-to-digital transition to the red-hot portable device category.

Source: DTC

For a more in-depth data on the use of the MPEG-4 AVC codec, DTC’s latest MPEG-4 AVC reports are now available. Follow the link for more information and detailed tables of content.

Meet Your New Gaming Standard

Tuesday July 6, 2010 – Shelby Cunningham

After playing some of the new PS3 games in 3D at E3 I am convinced that video games will do a lot more than TV content to encourage the sale and use of 3D TVs. For me at least, 3D requires some sort of interaction beyond leaning back and watching a TV to captivate me and keep my attention. Game play produces an intense and concentrated interaction where you forget you’re wearing glasses or forget the need to check Twitter. As long as viewing 3D on a TV requires glasses, the laser-focused activities that naturally discourage multitasking are likely to deliver the best 3D experience.

The gaming community is a leader in providing source devices and material for new stereoscopic 3D TV sets. The PS3 has already received its first firmware update that supports 3D games. Microsoft has remained silent about whether the Xbox 360 will support 3D except for saying that it is capable of doing so. During the EA press conference at E3, however, the makers of Crysis 2 may have “outed” Microsoft by saying that the game will be the first 3D game to play on multiple consoles in stereoscopic 3D. The current Wii won’t handle 3D or receive any updates to do so, but Nintendo says it is considering 3D for the next generation Wii depending on sales of new 3D TVs. Despite its conservative approach to the 3D console market, Nintendo is no 3D slacker, however, as it demonstrated a working prototype handheld 3D gaming device (3DS) that requires no glasses.

3D gaming will definitely take some getting used to, and supposedly you won’t be able to play the 3D games as long as a regular game due to suggested 3D viewing lengths, but I don’t think that will stop hardcore gamers.

Judging by the stable of veteran game makers with valuable content franchises developing 3D games, whether for the PS3 or the new Nintendo 3DS, industry players are betting on 3D with development dollars. I’m betting that TV makers can count on the game industry to deliver sales from hardcore gamers buying 3D TVs.

And once those hardcore gamers buy the 3D TV set, will there be time left over for them to watch a 3D movie or sports event? You’ll have to ask them once they take off the 3D glasses.