Monday, May 12, 1008 - Stewart Wolpin
Now that Blu-ray has won the high-definition DVD war, the expectation was that sales would explode and that in a few years, Blu-ray decks would outsell even standard definition DVD.
However, not only haven't sales of Blu-ray decks substantially increased, but DTC does not expect Blu-ray to represent any more than a third of all DVD devices sold five years hence.
DTC estimates that in 2008, global non-PC Blu-ray deck sales will represent only 3 percent of all DVD devices sold. DTC believes this percentage will increase to only 31 percent by 2013.
There are several market-specific reasons why Blu-ray will not replace DVD. But historically, no mainstream media format has ever been replaced by a slightly improved compatible product. For instance, digital audio tape could not displace the compact cassette, S-VHS did not supplant VHS, and neither SACD nor DVD-Audio replaced the CD. Blu-ray presents no practical advantage over standard DVD such as added convenience or longer play, as was the case when vinyl records replaced wax, CD replaced vinyl and DVD itself replaced VHS.
Blu-ray's success on any level is predicated on two primary factors: HDTV ownership and price. Only owners of HDTVs are likely to even consider a Blu-ray purchase. Only those owners who can afford 50-inch and larger HDTVs are likely to be able to afford a Blu-ray deck.
It also is unlikely companies that market lower-end or portable DVD players will enter the higher-priced Blu-ray device market for many years. Without the price competition the presence of these brands often incite, Blu-ray prices will remain two-to-three times higher than standard DVD product.
