Monday October 13, 2008 – Stewart Wolpin
Toshiba will not be joining the Blu-ray camp any time soon. Considering how much high-def content is now being downloaded, streamed and available via broadcast, this is probably not a bad strategic decision.
While Blu-ray remains the hottest and highest-quality movie playback system, DTC estimates that the non-PC Blu-ray devices will only account for around 12% of the total video optical disc devices market by 2010.
Instead, the former HD DVD hawker is investing, along with MOD Systems and NCR, in a new HD download/streaming system to take advantage of this content download trend.
It may not be the technology, but the logistics of this new system that raises questions about the strategic soundness of Toshiba's new non-HD DVD, non-Blu-ray direction.
MOD Systems and NCR are developing retail kiosks to enable consumers to download and transfer video content to a variety of portable devices compatible with Windows Media DRM and native SD security (i.e. not iPods or iPhones) and/or to SD memory cards. The theory? Philips executives say that they believe that SD slots will be pervasive in all consumer electronics devices.
MOD Systems is currently in discussions with all major studios for video content. Pilot systems will go into operation later this year and the full launch is scheduled for Spring 2009. MOD Systems' goal is to deliver content to the consumer within three to five minutes.
Initially, content will be available only in standard definition, but the service may also be applied to downloads of high definition content in the future, Content will be encoded with Windows Media DRM and native SD security.
Early next year, Toshiba will unveil a new set-top box to play back these store-burned SD cards.
We have a lot of questions. First is cost. A consumer will likely need at least a 1 GB card to store most of these compressed high-definition movies, probably 2 GB. The cost of a 1 or 2 GB card combined with the cost of the content could cost around the same as a Blu-ray disc. That's without knowing the comparative quality, availability of content extras, playback on other non-Toshiba compatible devices, and DRM issues.
But the biggest fly in this digital ointment is the "go to the store" part.
The appeal of downloading content rather than purchasing a pre-packaged standard definition DVD or Blu-ray is the convenience of acquiring high-definition content without leaving home.
Admittedly, this is a gut-reaction to a single thin-on-details press release and other equally-deficient news reports. We'd like to see a bit of the blanks filled in. But we can only hope Toshiba at least includes a download-at-home component to this SD scheme.
