Monday November 3, 2008 – Stewart Wolpin
When DVD was first introduced a little more than a decade ago, it was assumed that recordable DVD, when it dropped in price sufficiently, would replace the VCR.
But a funny thing happened on the way to DVD recording price viability – well, actually, a couple of things. The DVD recording format was beset by a recording format war (remember "plus" v. "dash"?) which was followed by the introduction of the DVR, both events occurring around the turn of the century (the 21st).
By the time the DVD-R format war was over and DVD-R hardware prices had dipped to popular price points, the DVR, had effectively replaced the VCR. After a couple of years of robust sales, sales of DVD recorders have steadily declined the last couple of years. In 2007, sales of DVD recorders represented 9% of all non-PC DVD hardware sales, dropping to an estimated 7% this year and an estimated 6% in 2009.
Source: DTC
Most of these sales are in the DVD-R-mad Japanese market. Only a half dozen companies even stock multiple DVD-r SKUs – Panasonic, Toshiba, Sony and Philips.
Blu-ray seemed at first to follow the same path as DVD as far as recording is concerned. The introduction of play-only BD players immediately sparked speculation of the introduction of BD recorders. But with the U.S. market buying into DVRs, manufacturers have felt no compunction to bring Blu-ray recorders to market anywhere but in Japan, Australia and other limited Pacific Rim markets.
Until now. At CEATEC in Japan last month, Panasonic, Pioneer and Sony each announced enhanced Blu-ray recorder models, most with 1394 connections for transfer of MiniDV footage, or at least that's what we assume.
While Sony's six models are intended only for the Japanese market, Pioneer and Panasonic have both announced their intentions to market Blu-ray recorders in Europe sometime this year in limited markets; Panasonic's deck is targeted only for France, for instance. There also are reports that Panasonic will be the first to sell a Blu-ray recorder in the U.S. in the first half of next year.
How will BD-R decks be received outside of their current comfortable Pacific Rim markets? Probably not enthusiastically.
Obviously DVRs already occupy the place of VCRs for both standard and high-definition recording. Many high-end PCs include BD recording capabilities to fulfill video editing needs. While BD-R deck prices have dropped to less than $1,000US (a Sharp model is selling for $899US, but most of the new models will be priced much higher) sales are likely to be low. A new Panasonic BD-R deck currently sells in Australia for $2,299AUS. The worsening worldwide economy and the precipitous drop in the U.S. dollar won't help matters, either, especially in the U.S.
Blu-ray recorders will likely generate some initial excitement if and when they arrive in Europe and the U.S., but they likely will occupy only a niche market.
