Monday February 2, 2009 - Stewart Wolpin
By the end of this week the deadline for ceasing analog TV transmissions will likely have changed to June 12.
Sanity reigns.
According to Nielsen, more than 6.5 million U.S. households, or 5.7% of all homes, aren't ready for the upcoming transition.
There are those who say that this is too small a percentage of the population to stall such an expensive and extensive transition. But how many unprepared households are too many to delay the analog turnoff? I would argue that one is too many. That may not be possible, but all reasonable precaution should be taken toward reaching that goal.
The bill to extend the deadline is headed to becoming law this week if the House passes the legislation (Senate already has) and President Obama signs the bill.
The bill will, unfortunately, permit individual stations to voluntarily turn their analog broadcasts at anytime after Feb. 17.
The change will likely pose little trouble for the consumer electronics business. There may be a small increase in overall converter box sales with the extension, although DTC’s converter box study forecasts that box makers will likely realize only about a 6% increase in overall sales with a June extension. DTC forecasts that an estimated 37 million boxes will ship into the marketplace through the life of the program if the shut off is extended.
Companies that have purchased the right to use the spectrum that will be vacated by terrestrial broadcasters, such as Qualcomm, will likely be the biggest losers. On Feb. 18, Qualcomm was due to launch its MediaFLO mobile TV service in 12 new markets. Qualcomm says it will have access to an additional 40 million potential customers through the use of the vacated spectrum. According to Qualcomm, millions of dollars have been spent in preparation for a Feb. 18 launch of MediaFLO services in these new markets.
Qualcomm’s CEO Paul Jacobs wrote, "[W]e believe that it would be unfair, unjust and inappropriate to delay the DTV transition beyond Feb. 17, 2009."
No company, including Qualcomm, having banked, literally and figuratively on the Feb. 17 turnoff date, deserves to be penalized by the delay. But as Clint Eastwood's William Munny growled to Gene Hackman's Sheriff Little Bill Daggett before blasting him in the face with a shotgun at the end of Unforgiven: "Deserve's got nothin' to do with it."
But obviously the government thinks the ability of 6.5 million households to be able to receive TV signals to be more deserving.
