Monday August 3, 2009 – Stewart Wolpin
U.S. terrestrial broadcasters are buzzing about finally being able to monetize their forced investment in DTV with the advent of mobile DTV sometime later this year or early next year. Simultaneously, Verizon and, to a lesser extent, AT&T, are both buzzing about the future of their 4G LTE networks, due early next year and 2011, respectively.
These buzzes are not separate and distinct. Broadcasters and wireless carriers have been inexorably bound for nearly 50 years in their battles over precious spectrum – the recently concluded digital transition, the logical conclusion of these battles, has made both Mobile DTV and LTE possible.
This symbiosis between broadcasters and carriers will not change as both buzz about their new standards. Together and separately, in ways no one – including their prime promoters – can predict, mobile DTV and LTE will revolutionize how broadcasters and carriers deliver content and services, the how studios package content, the types of mobile equipment that will be manufactured to receive and view this content, and how consumers will consume all of these.
Verizon has been conducting LTE field tests in several markets and, according to published reports, have been achieving download speeds of up to 60 Mbps, faster even than its wired FiOS internet service. Real world speeds are likely to be less, but even if actual throughput is half of those reported, 30 Mbps is still nearly twice as fast as most wired broadband delivery methods. The mind reels with the possible positive effects on both mobile and home Web access and the negative effect on wired ISPs.
The official word from Verizon about LTE is a 20-30 city rollout in the second half of next year with full nationwide rollout planned for late 2013/early 2014. But parallel rumors have been flying about an Apple tablet due early next year and of Verizon rushing LTE rollout, prompting speculation of an LTE-powered Apple tablet and a future LTE iPhone later next year.
Exaggerations and speculations? Absolutely. But it's hard to deny the logic that such converged devices will flood the market.
At the last two CESs, for instance, both LG and Samsung demonstrated a variety of mobile DTV devices such as portable DVD players, portable TVs and mobile phones. Verizon and AT&T both have gotten into the carrier-subsidized netbook business, perhaps building a foundation for a range of LTE devices. Whether or not broadcasters and telecom carriers will take the symbiosis far enough to merge the two technologies into a single device is still not known. We think that it’s a possibility but not until all parties invlolved can figure out how to either make more money off the services, or to retain valuable high ARPU customers.
