As my wife and I prepared to go out on the 4th of July, she asked if I was bringing along a digital camera. "Why?" I asked. "I have my iPhone 4, which will be fine for the outdoor pictures we'll be taking."
I have a feeling we won't be the only family making the decision to leave our point-and-shoot digital camera or camcorder at home in the coming months and years. Suddenly, 5 megapixels is becoming a baseline for cellcams and 720p for cell video recorders on the next generation of superphones such as the iPhone 4, the Sprint HTC EVO, the varying HTC Incredible, and, this week, the Motorola Droid X from Verizon and the first of four Samsung Galaxy S models, the Captivate for AT&T.
It's not that a cellcam, regardless of how many megapixels manufacturers mash into them, are better than a standalone digital camera. They're not, not by a long shot, although the imaging technology in the iPhone 4 is a major step forward, especially with the front-facing camera for self-portraits that, I found on the 4th of July, is perfect for couples and scenery. But the qualitative image difference between a standalone digital camera and a cellcam, especially for outdoor daylight photos, isn't as stark as it used to be. And, if history has taught us anything about consumer behavior, it’s that convenience is the single highest determining factor for technology adoption. And as my personal experience attests, if we can get away with carrying one less piece of technological bric-a-brac, we will.
In the next few years, sales for both point-and-shoot digital cameras and camcorders such as the Flip, could plummet as fast as personal navigation devices have in the face of cell phones including equal-to or better-than navigation apps.
Digital cameras are the most vulnerable short term to the cellcam effect. Despite constant improvement and lower prices, shipments of digital cameras are expected to fall 5% percent in 2010 and 10% in 2011. Cellcams offer one major advantage over higher-quality digital cameras: the ability to immediately send just-snapped photos to friends, family and Facebook.
Source: DTC
Long term, Flip and other sub-$200 pocketcams are even more cell phone replaceable. The qualitative difference between footage from a (relatively) cheap pocketcam and a 720p cell video recorder are minimal. Since you're carrying your cell phone anyway, wouldn't you rather leave home one piece of redundant gear? Of course you would, and so likely will a lot of people.
DTC projects shipments of MPEG-4 AVC camcorders to rise in the next few years, from just under 6 million units in 2010 to almost 9 million units in 2011, due to the transition from high-end units to low-cost flash media units. This growth is sure to be adversely affected by the growing number of superphones with 720p video capture capabilities.
It’s undeniable that better cameras/camcorders in superphones will have an impact on the single-use device sales, but keep in mind that superphones will only represent a small set of the overall mobile phone market for the near term. Stay tuned.
