Monday August 9, 2010 – Stewart Wolpin
There have been two undisputed 800-pound gorillas in the consumer electronics business over the last century, both perhaps not coincidentally led by genius/seer/founder: RCA and David Sarnoff until the mid 1970s, then Sony and Akio Morita until a few years ago.
As Sony's dominance has waned, Apple and Steve Jobs ascended to the CE throne. Two months ago, Apple passed Microsoft as the world's most valuable technology company, and is poised to pass Exxon Mobile as the most valuable company in the U.S.
While Apple and Jobs dominate most current gadget conversations, it's hard to think of the company as an RCA or a Sony. Why? First, Apple is conspicuously absent from CES. Second, Apple doesn't make what has been technology's marquee product – televisions. At least not yet.
There have been rumblings that Apple may be contemplating a full bore move into the living room. As usual, Steve Jobs' timing would be perfect.
iPod, iPhone and the iPad were raging successes because Apple capitalized on the pent-up potential of bleeding edge technologies and the pent-up desires of consumers anticipating the consumer product exploitation of these bleeding edge technologies.
HDTVs have just about reached this unfulfilled potential level. Widgets give consumers Web-lite access, but you have to add nearly every other advanced capability – optical disc drive (Blu-ray/DVD), DVR, video game, video streaming, PC-based media syncing, et al – via an increasing number of HDMI-connected set-top boxes. The TV is trying to morph into a smart box, but TVs are made by historically dumb box makers.
Apple brings to the TV party what it brought to the portable media player, the cellphone and the tablet PC businesses: nearly seamless content, functionality and user interface integration. No current TV maker has this wherewithal.
What would an Apple HDTV – iTV? – look and act like? It would likely be a cross between a dumbed-down iMac and a souped-up iPad. Physically, an Apple HDTV could be an all-in-one unit and likely include a slot-load Blu-ray player (even though not even the latest iMacs include a Blu-ray drive), a high-capacity DVR/hard drive with TiVo-like programming capability or even cloud program storage, a Web cam for FaceTime or Skype video chatting, and WiFi connectivity, along with a fully merged PC/TV jackpack, SD card slot and USB jacks.
On the software side, an Apple HDTV would likely run a customized, largely invisible version of iOS 4, with tiled multi-window/multi-program viewing, iPhone and iPad app compatibility (that's nearly 300,000 "widgets"), an EPG-equipped iTunes to access streaming and downloadable content and to sync PC-based content (perhaps with a Pandora-like streaming music service), and, of course, game and remote control via iPhone/iPod/iPad.
Apple would bring more than relatively simple function integration, though. An Apple-programmed iTV could let you remotely program or view programs without a Slingbox, or transfer DVR recorded programs onto an iPad/iPhone/iPod Touch as AT&T U-verse customers can already do. Maybe you'd even be able to check email and surf the Web via a real TV-based browser, and connect a printer for hard copy TV-based shopping receipts or photos.
With iTunes and access to sites such as Hulu, many consumers might more seriously contemplate cutting the cable cord.
One quivers at the possibilities.
What's the iTV hold-up? Certainly not distribution. Apple has carefully built retail relationships with Best Buy (and, therefore, the in-store Magnolias would be perfect iTV showcases), Wal-Mart and radio Shack, along with its high-profile stores.
Apple's concern may be about profit margin. HDTV is a price-sensitive commodity business. An Apple HDTV would likely carry a hefty premium (albeit an easily defendable one), so the company would likely not be aiming at mass market domination.
But millions would likely happily pay.
Apple, of course, doesn't need to be in the HDTV business. And given what's happened in the mobile phone business, it's debatable whether or not TVs are today's marquee technology product. But that's a topic for another day.
