The increasing availability of on-demand content from traditional pay TV providers, and more movie and TV programming available through the Internet and newly “apped-up” devices has the packaged media sector looking for a silver lining in the “new video distribution” cloud.
Of course, the DVD business is rapidly ceding its throne to Blu-ray Disc (BD) on the set-top, but how quickly will BD overtake the PC DVD business? SD DVD PCs will decline from 180 million units shipped in 2011 to just over 85 million units shipped in 2015. SD DVD players and recorders will experience similar decline. DTC estimates that roughly 62 million players will ship in 2011 with shipments dropping by nearly half in 2015 when 34 million units are estimated to ship. SD DVD recorders also decline sharply with only one million units estimated to ship in 2015. SD pre-recorded packaged media will also experience notable decline; the category is expected to experience a -14% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) between 2010 and 2015.
Even with the notable erosion of SD video optical disc drive products, high definition (HD) products are projected to experience significant growth. It is important to note however that DTC believes even though other content sources have indeed slowed growth within HD video optical disc product categories, they have in no way stifled it. BD PC yearly shipments are expected to nearly triple between 2011 and 2015. Nearly 66 million BD players and recorders are expected to ship in 2011 growing to 125 million estimated to ship in 2015. BD pre-recorded packaged media is estimated to experience a 50% CAGR between 2010 and 2015. While HD video optical disc products will likely never reach the heights of their SD predecessors, HD BD, will continue to keep video optical disc products relevant long into the future.
For more information on video optical disc products please visit DTC’s website where an update to our data intensive Video Optical Disc report will be available soon.
