Monday February 14, 2011 – Stewart Wolpin
When is a phone not a phone? When is a TV not a TV? When is a camcorder not a camcorder?
It depends. Now that the rate at which technologies are converging in single devices has dramatically increased, the answer is a moving target. It may seem trivial, but, in fact, it’s important. As a DTC analyst, I see every day how this situation puts the forecasting and analyzing of markets on its head.
Without thoughtful classification and measurement of product sales, imports, and exports, analyzing these markets is an exercise in chaos.
Without proper classification it’s difficult for retailers to merchandize and promote products and services. Manufacturer product planners must clearly understand the most compelling functions of a converged device to understand how to make it and how to market it. And, it’s nearly impossible to measure supplier market share if we can’t find effective gadget taxonomy.
What's a tablet?
Take tablet PCs. Please (sorry, couldn't resist). Is an iPad a PC? If so, what kind? A laptop? A notebook? A netbook? Gadget analysts are falling over themselves trying to figure out if iPad is a "PC."
In the next few months, there's going to be a flood of new tablets in varying sizes running various operating systems. At what point does what one company calls a "tablet" does everyone else call a mere multimedia device? After all, no one calls an iPod Touch, which is in many ways a smaller version of an iPad, a "PC." Is a 5-inch tablet a "PC"? A 7-inch tablet? Where's the line between "media player" and "tablet" and where's the line – if there is one – between "tablet" and "PC"?
Or, is it the OS? iPod Touch and iPad run slightly different versions of Apple iOS. So, therefore, are tablets running anything less than Android 3.0 not a tablet and, therefore, not a PC? What about the new HP TouchPad which runs webOS or future tablets running the Windows Mobile 7 OS, both cellphone operating systems?
Then there is a particular professional interest of mine – digital imaging. The vast majority of models in each of the four major camera categories – point-and-shoot, D-SLRs, full-size camcorders and Flip-style pocket camcorders – all now shoot multi-megapixel stills and 1920 x 1080 video. Sanyo has been calling their digital imaging wares "Dual Cameras" for the last year or so, refusing by design and nomenclature to identify if their products are either or both "camcorder" or "digital camera" or some new catch-all category. How long will the term "camcorder" even be relevant?
And, what’s a smartphone?
And take the smartphone, please (sorry – I've got Henny Youngman on the brain). The iPhone 4, the Droids, the Samsung Galaxy S, et al, all have more in common with the Flip camcorder than with cheap flip phones, and talking on a phone long ago stopped being a cellphone's primary function. Sprint's Kyocera-made Echo has two screens that can be clicked together to form a single 4.7-inch square display, which is referred to as "tablet mode." So do we start counting cellphones as cameras? Portable media devices? Tablets?
And at a certain point, digital imaging makers are going to figure out how to put a Kindle-like Whispernet on their wares to enable us to immediately send photos like we can on a smartphone. How do we then classify this wireless-capable camera?
Answering those questions is a moving target, but they’re questions that must constantly be analyzed. How can a company move forward in R&D, planning and product design without knowing what they’re making and how to market it?
P.S. Friday, February 11, was Thomas Edison's birthday. Given how dominated our world is by technology, and given Edison's foundational role in nearly every device and technology we use, either directly, indirectly or even just by inspiration, I'd love to see some national or international recognition of his birthday to celebrate all the inventors, scientists and engineers who have brought us our modern technological society.
