Monday May 2, 2011 - Maya Jasmin
With the push to get over-the-top (OTT) content to the television, options are becoming more plentiful and quality is improving. The question of what will become of video optical disc packaged media undoubtedly has to be explored. The best way to embark upon that exploration is to go straight to the numbers. DTC’s latest estimates for video optical disc devices and pre-recorded packaged media suggest that the video optical disc market as a whole is far from extinction, especially the packaged media market.
DTC’s latest data intensive report The Video Optical Disc, Devices and Media: Worldwide Shipments (2009-2015)-5th edition, chronicles the trends of the video optical disc market including DVD and Blu-ray disc (BD) PCs, DVD players and recorders , BD players, DVD and BD pre-recorded packaged media, and DVD and BD video game systems. The total device market is forecasted to ship over 396 million units in 2011 and nearly 404 million in 2015.
Even though the total packaged media market is forecasted to decline between 2011 and 2015, annual shipments are expected to hover around the 5 billion mark, give or take a few hundred million any given year. The decline is somewhat misleading however, in that is a function of the inverse relationship between DVD and BD units. Prerecorded BD media is expected to experience impressive growth. In 2011, 757 million units are expected to ship with shipments likely to catapult over the 2 billion mark in 2015, continuing to grow throughout the foreseeable future. However, DVD media will be in decline over the forecast period and beyond, but is still expected to log respectable shipments of more than 2.5 billion in 2015.
So while OTT content is definitely a viable opponent to packaged media as we know it, DTC does not believe that the market will suffer extinction anytime in the near future. And we still contend that while BD will not be the giant that DVD was, it will definitely extend the life of the video optical disc device and media markets. It is not surprising that many devices that play traditional packaged media are now incorporating the ability to play OTT content. So instead of head-to-head competition, it looks like OTT content and video optical disc packaged media will just have to learn how to play nice!
