Monday, October 10, 2011

Digicam RIP

Monday October 10, 2011 – Stewart Wolpin

As the new iPhone 4S arrives, and as Android acolytes chuckle at iPhone 4S’s suddenly tiny screen and Android-like notification pulldown bar, and Sprint agrees to buy $20 billion worth of iPhones over the next three years, one segment of the tech industry, digital camera makers, may just accuse Apple of murder.

With iPhone now sporting a CMOS 8 MP camera with face detection and 1080p video recording, the cheap digital camera could be dead-tech walking.

But iPhone 4S's enhanced camera specifications are the least of the problems facing point-and-shoot digicam makers.

Psst! Wanna cheap iPhone?

Apple (or, rather AT&T, Verizon and Sprint) will be giving away the iPhone 3GS – as in free, with a two-year contract – and selling an 8 GB iPhone 4 for $99.

Hmm, let's ponder the digital camera buying dilemma as a consumer would. A whole iPhone 4 with a 5 MP camera and 720p video recording for $100, or a digital camera that can't upload pictures to Twitter or attach snaps to a text message for around $150?

Okay, maybe that's not much of a dilemma.

Yes, digital cameras have better lenses and can do a lot of other fancy photographic tricks. But face tracking, funny frames, funhouse effects or in-camera editing can't come close to compensating for connectivity.

Plus, who says a cheap digicam is a better camera than a smartphone? While I still use a high-end point-and-shoot camera for business, I suffer no geeky qualms leaving it at home for casual candids. iPhone 4 takes remarkably good photos and, presumably, the iPhone 4S will take even better ones. In fact, I recently took similar night shots with an iPhone 4 and with a new digicam, and the iPhone shots were far superior – with no special exposure or "night scene" settings.

I'm also playing with both the Sprint and AT&T editions of the Samsung Galaxy S II smartphone, each with an 8 MP camera and 1080p video capture, and I'm shockingly impressed with the results of both.

And, I'm guessing, so will the great unwashed. Camera, shmamra. Camcorder, camshmorder. Who needs 'em? And the numbers bear out this dismissive attitude.

Apple outsells whole industry?

According to DTC, 440 million smartphones will shipworldwide this year – and that projection was made before anyone knew Apple would expand iPhone 4S sales through Sprint and offer a free and sub-$100 iPhone.

In its last quarter, ending in July this year, Apple sold 20.3 million iPhones. Anyone doubt iPhone shipments may surpass 50 million by the end of the year? Anyone? Bueller?

Conversely, DTC projects only 121 million digital cameras will be shipped worldwide this year. In other words, Apple alone could ship the equivalent of 40% of the total number of digital cameras that will ship worldwide this year.

Oy.

And then DTC believes only a third of all digital cameras are capable of recording HD video, the only digital cameras providing a true alternative to the iPhone 4 and most of the new 5 MP/8 MP-720p/1080p-equipped Android phones introduced this year.

Double oy.

And, again, this is a projection made before Apple announced AT&T, Verizon and Sprint would give away iPhones. Anyone now doubt this digital camera shipment projection may be a bit short? Anyone? Bueller?

Yes, the new iPhone 4S is good news for lots of folks in the tech biz. But smartphones have practically made pocketcams obsolete, and now have their laser sites are targeted at the digital camera business.