Tuesday January 3, 2012 – Stewart Wolpin
Like the stirrings of a small cabal of rebels in the mountains, the seeds of a revolution are sprouting in the Wi-Fi world. But this is not mere blogging hyperbole. Before the end of the decade, all the current folderol over 3G and 4G high-speed cellular data connectivity could become an anachronism in a planet bathed with ubiquitous Wi-Fi connectivity.
Actually, there are two separate revolutions brewing: Wi-Fi Certified Passpoint, popularly known as Hotspot 2.0 (for those who have ever heard of it), and Super Wi-Fi.
The first, due to rollout in less than a year, will make Wi-Fi as easy to automatically access as cellular service is now; the second will create hotspots measured not in feet, but in miles.
Combined, these two efforts will disturb nearly every portable product paradigm, completely change how consumers interact with their gear and create entrepreneurs who are able to grasp and exploit the implications better than others. Like previous tech revolutions, the old and complacent will either adapt or die, and the new will rise to replace and dominate them.
It's all a matter of understanding what the revolution is bringing.
Wi-Fi Certified Passpoint
Its promoters are promulgating the idea that Passpoint will make Wi-Fi as easy to connect to as cellular.
The Wi-Fi
Alliance is now readying the first version of the Passpoint standard that will enable mobile devices worldwide to automatically detect and automatically and securely connect to Passpoint-certified hotspots. Consumers will be able to move seamlessly from hotspot-to-hotspot just like they can from cell-to-cell (although they haven't quite figured out hotspot-to-hotspot Passpoint VoIP call handoff – yet).
Meanwhile, the Wireless Broadband Alliance (WBA) is forging the business partnerships between hotspot providers such as Boingo, cellular carriers and cable providers, all of whom will simply add Wi-Fi connectivity to a consumer's current bill, offering per-usage or buckets of monthly connectivity plans, similar to cellular minutes.
Passpoint's implications are tantalizing. Wi-Fi connectivity is capable of theoretical speeds of 450 Mbps (and I'll be speaking of theoretical speeds so this is an apples-to-apples comparison). 4G LTE has a top theoretical speed of 12 Mbps. If my math is right, that's a nearly 400 times speed advantage. Future LTE revisions may bring theoretical top speeds of 50 Mbps; if Wi-Fi technology doesn't improve, that's still a hefty 9x speed advantage.
For mobile-optimized Web surfing, sending emails, uploading photos, this extra acceleration is nice, not critical. But if you enable it, they will come. Video calling can be buffer- and grain-free HD. HD video shot from a smartphone can be as mindlessly uploaded and passed around as photos are today. And I'm sure there'll be apps I can't even think of that will take advantage of this revolutionary blanket broadband coverage.
Super Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi hotspots are plentiful in urban areas; out in the hinterlands – not so much. And current hotspots are limited by their pitiful
150-200 foot range, if you're lucky.
Super Wi-Fi will change all that.
Instead of transmitting in the 2.4 or 5 GHz bands, Super Wi-Fi, promoted by the SIG-like Wireless Innovation Alliance, lives in the so-called TV White Space band, 470-698 MHz.
This lower frequency band widens Wi-Fi signal propagation – at low, 40 mW power, a home or local Wi-Fi hotspot will reach three- to five-times the coverage as current Wi-Fi (future routers will likely be dual-mode since Super Wi-Fi speeds may be slower than high-frequency Wi-Fi); broadcast at a high-powered 4 watts, a rural Super Wi-Fi hotspot could stretch as wide as 40
miles, depending on terrain. Lower TV White Space frequencies also mean more robust signals that more easily travel through obstructions that hamper regular Wi-Fi.
Because the 470-698 MHz TV White Space band is unlicensed, rural entrepreneurs could rush to build 4-watt multi-mile hotspots, then make deals with cell carriers to get them incorporated into Passpoint networks. Forward-thinkers may find Super Wi-Fi a new cash crop once the first Super
Wi-Fi gear starts rolling out in late 2013/early 2014, a process that has just started.
The downside is a Super Wi-Fi land rush that could force the FCC to impose stricter rules or open up more space to accommodate expected expansive usage for spectrum.
But imposing order on what promises to be a wild Wi-Fi West is further down the road, after the Passpoint and Super Wi-Fi revolutions succeed in disrupting the current Wi-Fi status quo.
