Monday, July 30, 2012

Where's Apple HDTV?

Monday July 30, 2012 – Stewart Wolpin

The Web is alive with speculation concerning iPhone 5 and an iPad Mini, as well as pending new Kindle Fires from Amazon and maybe its first smartphone, along with lingering when-and-how-much questions about Microsoft's Surface tablets and the varying Windows 8 editions and Office 2013, Nintendo's long-awaited release of the Nintendo Wii U, Sony's PlayStation 4, a Blu-ray equipped Xbox 720, and the now delayed appearance until early next year of the long-awaited RIM savior BlackBerry 10.

But like asking everyone not in the room to raise their hands, the rumors about Apple HDTV have been conspicuous by their absence.

A few months ago, the interwebs was chock full of "Apple HDTV is coming!" hubbub.

Now? Crickets.

Why? Nothing but my own fecund imagination is fueling the following fulmination, but I think Apple has delayed its HDTV because it doesn't want to enter the TV market with just another "smart" TV.

No, Apple wants to change how we watch TV the way it changed how we buy music – by offering individual programs for sale either a la carte or via an all-you-can-watch subscription. Except Hollywood won't let Apple do what consumers want it to do.

Last March, CBS CEO Les Moonves told a symposium how Steve Jobs approached him a year before to sell CBS programming under a subscription content plan. Moonves turned him down.

Moonves may have been right in the short term. But the whole studio-to-cable/satellite provider-to-consumer model is an endangered species; to quote The Crow, "They're all dead, they just don't know it yet."

From where I sit, an oncoming train is speeding toward the broadcast TV business model. That train is a consumer's desire to cherry-pick what they want to watch rather than paying for things they don't want to watch, with an unnecessary cable/satellite provider in the middle.

We can already see this train. Many Hulu, Vudu and Netflix subscribers are watching TV this way. A couple of months ago, an online petition asking HBO to make its popular "Game of Thrones" series accessible via its online HBOGO app without being tied to a cable subscription attracted nearly 170,000 signatures – people begged HBO to take their money. CNN's Dan Simon provided an excellent report on why HBO said no to a standalone Internet HBOGO service.

In brief – HBO didn't want to rupture relationships with cable providers. But nearly every TV and cable channel has its own attendant Web site via which consumers can consume programming, bypassing cable or satellite providers. Viacom tried to shut their content Web sites down during its recent kerfuffle with DirecTV so satellite subscribers wouldn't have this alternative access. But Viacom reversed course after a hew and cry from not only non-DirecTV subscribers but from one of Viacom's own employees, Jon Stewart.

All of which illustrates the inexorable move from the current broadcast paradigm to a la carte or subscription viewing via the Web.

"Cord cutting" has become a parlor game protest exercise for the technologically clever, an economic necessity for others. The only thing stopping cord cutting from becoming a full-blown trend is an organized alternative to cable/satellite middlemen – such as what Apple wants to provide with its HDTV. But my guess – Apple won't until it can.