Monday March 15, 2010 – Antonette Goroch
Now that HD and DVRs are mainstream in the large developed pay TV markets of the U.S., Europe and Asia; pay TV operators, chip makers and STB makers are casting an eye towards technologies that will drive new STB replacement cycles and premium content packages. It’s no surprise then that 3D TV is garnering increased industry interest, evident on the show floors of CEBit in Hannover, Germany this year.
But just how near is the 3D opportunity for pay TV and how big will it really be?
With 3D movies bringing in record box office results, it’s only natural that Hollywood aftermarket pipelines would soon follow with similar offerings. As 3D TVs, Blu-ray players and a handful of packaged media titles make their way to market this year (leaving trade show floors worldwide littered with sample 3D glasses), pay TV operators are gearing up to launch their own 3D channels in 2010-2011. But pay TV systems face particular inherent challenges to implementing 3D TV, which may make launching 3D more difficult, expensive and time consuming, than in the packaged media industry.
Only a few pay TV systems have announced plans for 3D TV so far: DirecTV (US), BSkyB (UK) and Foxtel (Australia). While these are set to offer a version of 3D TV which can utilize most existing HD AVC/H.264 STBs, this won’t be a full HD (i.e. 1080i to each eye) resolution quality version available via Blu-ray. Rather, the “frame compatible” method works by splitting a single 1080i frame into two right/left half resolution frames. Even this half resolution 3D will require a certain level of upgrade (and thus cost) for STBs via firmware at least, since the key enabling technology for this method is the only recently settled HDMI 1.4 (though the updated HDMI 1.3a can also do a version of this as well). And with this cost, it’s not entirely clear how many consumers will seek to pay a premium for 3D content of a lower comparative quality than other home media options.
To achieve a full 1080i to each eye experience, consumers will need a new STB with technology, probably the MPEG-4 based profile MVC, in use by Blu-ray, embedded at the chip level. Such boxes are not even on the market yet, existing only in demo state. Even chips are not yet available at price levels that make sense for commercial quantities. Further complicating matters, these chips must be specifically designed for the STB context to account for specifics like conditional access and DVR functions.
In reality, any kind of meaningful 3D pay TV is probably at least a few years away. Even then, it’s not clear whether this will be a mainstream tier product, or merely a small premium niche. Much will depend on the reception of the 3D TVs and Blu-ray players just now making their way into the market. Should these products prove particularly popular, pay TV operators may see greater incentive to invest in new STBs and more compelling 3D offerings more quickly.
