Monday March 29, 2010 – Shelby Cunningham
DTC’s recent forecast and analysis on the digital set-top box market estimates that
CAGR for digital STB (satellite, cable, terrestrial, IPTV and DCA) shipments will only register about 2% from 2008 through 2014. Any growth is welcome, but if 2% isn’t classified as “flat,” it’s definitely way inside the neighborhood of Flatsville.
Source: Digital Tech Consulting
It’s not all bad (or flat) news, however. There are a couple of bright spots. The most growth will come from the IPTV sector. Despite the never ending proclimations of the death of over-the-air television, DTT STBs will continue to log healthy growth between 2010 and 2013.
DTT STB shipments will drop over the next couple of years now that the U.S. analog TV shut-off is over, but shipments will rise to about 55 million units in 2011 once many counties such as France, UK, Canada and Japan begin their analog shut-offs after 2011.
China fueled significant growth in digital cable STBs in 2008 and 2009 as many cable operators digitized their analog systems. Although growth will be tempered now that much of the infrastructure is in place, China will continue to fuel digital cable STB shipments during this forecast period. But digital subscriber growth in China is slowing. Expect future China shipments to come primarily from replacement and multiple box deployments. Replacement STBs in this mature system will help digital cable STB shipments stay fairly flat, dropping slightly from about 58 million units in 2009 to about 57 million units in 2011.
