While watching TV the
other night, I saw something shocking: a commercial for a camcorder.
Why shocking? The
camcorder business is going into the…uh, commode, especially the so-called
"pocketcam" camcorder, the sub-$200 models popularized by Flip.
For around five
years, Flip-style camcorders were the hoola-hoop of the imaging business.
Nearly every mainstream and not-so-mainstream camcorder company suddenly wanted
into the hoola-hoop…er, pocketcam business.
But around 18 months
ago, Cisco decided that profit margins on Flip camcorders didn't exactly
produce…uh, profit. So Cisco the non-consumer electronics company shut down the
consumer electronics camcorder business it had bought just two years before.
Flip's death
coincided with the rise of 1080p video recording capability being included in
nearly every new smartphone and nearly every new digital camera over $150.
These mediocre cellcams and mediocre digicam cams obviated the consumer need to
carry around a separate – and larger – mediocre pocketcam.
And then Kodak, the
second-biggest seller of pocketcams, went into the…uh, commode earlier this
year. In the wake of these pocketcam disasters, nearly all the camcorder makers
who had entered the pocketcam business quickly reversed course and exited the
pocketcam business.
Thus, the
aforementioned camcorder commode condition. DTC projects camcorder unit sales
will plummet 15 percent in 2012 and another 13 percent 2013. Camcorders are
likely to never see sales growth again. In fact, camcorders could become a
specialty category ala D-SLRs or audiophile speakers in less than five years.
Wear your camcorder
It is because of this
deteriorating camcorder environment that I found the camcorder commercial
shocking. But the commercial didn't come from one of the usual camcorder
suspects.
The ad was for GoPro,
a maker of wearable, waterproof and shockproof so-called "action"
camcorders.
In the last two
years, GoPro has gone from a niche camcorder maker to one of the top 10
camcorder suppliers. Three of the top five best-selling camcorders on Amazon
are GoPro models. Best-selling models numbers 6, 8 and 9 are waterproof models
from Kodak – which, as noted, is out of the camcorder business. Best-seller
number 12 is a wearable model from another relatively new action camcorder
maker, Contour.
This GoPro sales trend
is not an American aberration.
The best-selling digitale
camcorder on German Amazon: GoPro.
The best-selling
camcorder on Great British Amazon: GoPro.
The top two
best-selling cámerscopes on French Amazon: GoPro.
The top two best-selling
camcorders on Canada Amazon: GoPro.
The top two
best-selling videocamere on Italian Amazon: GoPro.
The top two
best-selling videocámaras on Spanish Amazon: GoPro.
You get the idea.
Jumping the action bandwagon
As a result of
GoPro's sudden sales success, action camcorders have suddenly become the new
hoola-hoop…er, I mean pocketcam.
Sony, Panasonic,
Samsung and Toshiba all have added sub-$200 waterproof SKUs to their lineups in
the last year. In late June, JVC unveiled its Adixxion wearable camcorder.
Others are likely to jump on the waterproof camcorder bandwagon.
One supplier told me waterproof/wearable
is the only way to differentiate their other unnecessary product from
smartphone and digital camera camcorders.
As with all fad
product trends, the action cam rush is unsustainable.
Most obvious, as with
all bandwagon products, the waterproof camcorder will soon be flooded (pun
intended), and will naturally collapse the market pool leaving only the
heartiest action cam swimmers.
But more important is
the limited addressable market. How many outdoor types are there who will buy
all these action camcorders? Are action camcorder makers hoping their action
camcorders aren't as shock or waterproof as claimed requiring new action cam replacement
purchases?
And what happens to
the action cam market when more and more smartphones become waterproof?
No, the judgment here
is that action cam sales action itself is the aberration and is likely to fade far
faster than the pocketcam business.
