Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Is Quality Losing Again?

Monday August 27, 2012 – Stewart Wolpin

It's happening again.

A superior qualitative technology is failing and will perhaps disappear while a competing inferior technology thrives and becomes dominant.

There's been a long, if dishonorable, tradition of consumers and the market making the wrong qualitative format choice. AM dominating FM. Audio cassette usurping vinyl. VHS vaulting over Beta. Windows whipping Mac. MP3 trumping CD.

Sure, there are solid functional, convenience, marketing and pricing reasons why an inferior quality technology beat out a higher-quality competitor. But the historical fact remains – too often, a lower-quality product wins out.

In this case, the qualitative loser is poor plasma HDTV. Even though plasmas were the first and, for a long time, the dominant flat screen HDTV technology, LCD is prevailing in the market place. Always inferior to plasma (even today, the best LCD models are always noted as being "as good as plasma"), LCD models were not available in large sizes, and when they were, they were vastly more expensive than plasma.

Not anymore.

Plasma HDTV sales have been slowing for some years and make up a small percentage of the overall flat-panel TV market, despite the fact that plasma HD prices are moving down.

A lot of plasma’s misfortunes began when certain LCD manufacturer started to spread misinformation about plasma burn-in rates, lifetime brightness limitations and other now non-existent plasma problems that I still hear from civilians ("Oh, I heard plasma has problems with…") and have to constantly refute.

And, so, plasma HDTV may be on its way to the dustbin of TV history.

Perhaps the one consolation for folks who want an alternative to LCD is the hopeful emergence of OLED sets, unveiled at CES by both Samsung and LG and promised for sale this fall. Sure, initial OLED sets will run around $10k, but this is less than what original plasma HTDVs cost 15 years ago.

For quality survival sake, I hope plasma lasts long enough for OLED to become affordable.