In a few weeks you'll
have a choice to make – and I don't necessarily mean the presidential election.
Just as the race between President Obama and Mitt Romney, most have made up
their minds between the two major smartphone contenders, Apple iOS and Google
Android.
But just as in
politics, there is a wide swath of undecided, or non-smartphone owners – around
45 percent of U.S. mobile users are still using feature phones as of Nielsen's last market sounding in
July.
This undecided group,
just as in the presidential race, is shrinking rapidly. A year ago the
non-smartphone owning U.S. population was 59 percent, and the current Nielsen
figure is likely to shrink further given the 45 million-plus iPhone 5s expected to be
sold between now and the end of the year.
Ten days before we
vote for president, on October 26, the choices for the smartphone undecided
will expand with the official availability of Microsoft's Windows 8 platform.
Several Windows Phone 8 (WP8) handsets such as the brightly-colored Nokia Lumia 920 and 820 and HTC 8X and 8S will follow.
Judging by the
specifications of these WP8 handsets, Microsoft and its partners recognize the
nature of this undecided vote. They are modern, but not close to bleeding edge,
and with their fashion-forward accessories, seem to place a greater emphasis on
color and style then any Android or even Apple phone.
Microsoft and WP8
handset makers realize the vast chunk of current smartphone owners lean toward
the geek who cares about such things as processor speed, display technology,
relative screen size and other digital decorations.
The undecided – the
constituency Microsoft is aiming at – is less tech savvy. Microsoft, perhaps
cynically, believes current feature phone owners can be distracted by pretty pastel
baubles and just enough technology to keep costs – and pricing down.
And they may be
right. Except…
How big is 45 percent of the market?
If this is
Microsoft's strategy, I detect a flaw: the undecided market may not be as large
as Microsoft and the WP8 crowd believes.
With the coming of
iPhone 5, you can now buy an iPhone 4S for $100 and get an iPhone 4 for free on
contract. There are dozens of similarly inexpensive or free Android phones available,
including the brand new Motorola Droid RAZR M with its
4.3-inch screen and 16-hour battery at $100.
It seems Microsoft assumes
its high handset prices and lack of a less sophisticated third-party candidate
that keeps the undecided from switching to a smartphone.
It isn't.
I asked a friend, a
professional in the advertising field, why he had not switched from his feature
phone. His reason – the monthly data plan cost. The new shared data plans being
offered by the major carriers may lessen this monthly burden but won't
eliminate it.
So, following the
80/20 rule, convincing feature phone users to switch to smartphones will be
increasingly difficult. My guess, just as there are still stubborn folks with
analog TVs, VCRs and wired landline phones, around 20 percent of feature phone
users are likely to remain unreachable feature phone users.
Which means Microsoft
is chasing just 25 percent of the undecided vote, which Apple and Android also
are pursuing with equal ardor – and with more advanced (if aesthetically less flowery)
devices.
Considering the
market and familiarity advantages enjoyed by Apple and Android, Microsoft can't
optimistically hope to grab any more than a single digit share of the entire
mobile phone market.
I do like the WP8
operating system and I wish Microsoft luck. But its chance of affecting (much
less winning) the smartphone election are less than any other third-party
candidate.
