Monday
December 10, 2012 – Stewart Wolpin
For
awhile, it seemed, we were free from 1980's-style vaporware from major
equipment manufacturers.
Apparently
not.
At last
year's CES, Samsung and LG elbowed
each other over "first-ever" recognition for their respective
55-inch, pencil-thin next-generation OLED HDTVs. Each company intimated, if not
outright promised, we'd be knee-deep in OLED HDTVs before the end of this year.
For
instance, LG was quoted in
myriad publications as late as a month ago it's intention to
start selling its 55EM9600 this year in Korea and maybe in Europe "by
Christmas" for $10k.
Personally,
I never
believed the whole "OLED available in 2012"
rhetoric. But it's disturbing that otherwise responsible entities forgot the
vaporware lessons of the last century and promoted the whole "OLED available
in 2012" possibility.
My
cynicism was confirmed by reports
that both Samsung and LG have delayed OLED production until
next year.
For one
thing, it's doubtful there's even a market for a $10k OLED HDTV with today's
sets selling for less than a fifth of that figure.
Yes, the
picture on an OLED is superior to that on a plasma or an LED LCD. But subsequent
generations of new high-resolution products rarely are successful only because of higher quality. There has always been a
mitigating convenience or pricing factor that leads to consumer acceptance.
Marketing higher-quality has nearly always doomed next-generation products.
Plus,
OLED HDTVs for 1920 x 1080p viewing may already be obsolete. Myriad TV makers
including LG, Panasonic, Sharp, Sony and Toshiba exhibited
advanced 3840 x 2160 pixel 4K HDTVs at both CES and at the IFA show
in Berlin in late August. Not that the public is clamoring for 4K, either, but…
Yield, legal and leaking problems
Aside
from marketing issues that must be obvious to OLED executives, OLED has
suffered manufacturing and legal setbacks.
Not
surprisingly for a new display technology, both Samsung
and LG are suffering low manufacturing yields, the
primary reason behind the delay.
But the
two Korean giants have been trading lawsuits over OLED technology as well.
First, Samsung
sued LG over OLED patents. LG
snapped back with its own patent infringement accusations. Then
Samsung slapped a countersuit, asserting
LG's patent claims were nonsense.
On top of
these ping-pong lawsuits, OLED technology from both companies has reportedly
been leaked to Chinese copycat
manufacturers, which could result in a flood of cheaper OLED sets.
I'm sure
both Samsung and LG will put on the brave faces as they optimistically exhibit
the same OLED models they did at IFA. But it's hard to imagine executives
promoting the same confidence in OLED as they did a year ago.
