"What did you
see that was cool?" is the per usual post-CES question posed to show-goers
by both fellow show-goers making sure they didn't miss anything (I missed the
female body painting at the iWare booth, for instance) and by non-attendees who
apparently haven't read any of the terabytes of online coverage.
The question usually
implies what cool gadgets one has seen. After all, this week at CES there will
be 20,000 new gizmos unveiled, both on the show floor and at satellite events
and in off-campus hotel rooms.
But the
"cool" things at CES may not be new products but the emergence of two
disruptive trends:
• large screen
ultra-high definition (UHD) 4K TVs
• connected –
everything
Neither of these trends
are necessarily new. Major TV makers have been exhibiting UHDs for the last
couple of years as prototypes. At last year's IFA, every major TV brand exhibited some
variation of 84-inch or larger 4K or 8K set.
But at this year's
CES, the TV expectation was the fulfillment of last year's OLED promises by LG
and Samsung. (Only LG was specific about specifics – March, $12,000, starting
in Korea.) Both Panasonic and Sony surprised show-goers with "oh,
yeah?" "world's biggest" (by an inch) 56-inch OLED models, and
both LG and Samsung claimed "world's first" status for their curved
OLED displays (the purpose of which escapes me) but none noted any intention to
actually manufacturer and sell either.
As a result, the OLED
thunder was stolen by the proliferation of slightly more definitive 4K UHD plans.
LG, Sony, Toshiba and
even Vizio not only unveiled 3840 x 2160 pixel 4K 3D LED smart UHD models, they
unveiled them in three sizes; LG and Sony in 55, 65 and 84 inches, Toshiba in 58,
65 and 84 inches and Vizio (using panels from Sharp, which ironically did not
announce any definitive UHD plans of its own, just its own 70-inch UHD
prototype) in 55, 65 and 70 inches. Samsung plans on selling just one UHD SKU,
a "world's largest" 85-incher, although they exhibited a 110-inch
model.
All have said they'd
start selling their UHDs in the spring – and with each exhibiting UHDs in
different sizes, it's a more believable claim than those made for OLED.
True, the 84-inch UHD
models will run in the pricy $20,000-$25,000 neighborhood. But the smaller
models may not be any more expensive than the first round of flat panel 720p
HDTVs back in the late 1990s, which experienced healthy sales from the same
"look what I have!" crowd likely to be attracted to 4K now that everyone has a 60-inch flat screen.
Vizio swore it would offer its UHD at more friendly prices.
Perhaps given the
price competition now devouring the current 1080p world, it shouldn't be
surprising to see manufacturers drooling at the prospect of higher-margin UHDs.
On Sunday, CEA
analysts projected UHD sales would reach 23,000 in the United States this year,
1.5 million by 2016. Considering the start these sets will get this year from a
variety of brands, these projections may be spectacularly low.
To me, what I saw at
CES was the shocking coming-out party for UHD.
Next time, I'll
discuss the CES coming out party of universal gadget connectivity.
