Wednesday January 2, 2013 – Greg Scoblete
No tech writer worth his or her salt can let
the year end without throwing out a few predictions for the future. As a firm
believer in the "fox" style of analysis (which you can learn about here) I offer the following less as boastful declarations and more as
heavily caveated presumptions, subject to revision if they prove horribly,
embarrassingly wrong.
So, with your expectations properly
calibrated, let's take a glimpse at what the new year may hold, shall we?
1. While the crest of over the top Internet services will continue to
rise, the more widespread use of bandwidth caps by cable and IPTV providers
will begin to slow growth: Cable TV may not be able to
stamp out Netflix, but it has the ultimate trump card against any
prospective cord cutter: the ability to jack broadband internet rates to recoup
lost pay TV subscription fees. Expect to see more cable and IPTV providers
institute bandwidth caps or tiered pricing regimes to dampen consumer
enthusiasm for "all you can stream" competitive internet video
services.
2. Amazon’s original programming initiative flounders: Several marquee internet video
providers began to invest in original programming in 2012, including YouTube,
Netflix and Amazon. The idea is simple: lure cord cutters with original content
not available on the major networks. While Netflix will likely continue this
investment into 2012, Amazon may sour on it (yes, they’re still shelling out cash as I
write this). But Amazon has a few problems: its financials are hurting and it has no
particular skill in this area. Unlike Netflix, which has no choice but to
strengthen its video offering, Amazon has the flexibility to abandon vanity
initiatives.
3. 4K and OLED fail to ignite the TV market: The same hype machine that went into overdrive to sell consumers on 3D
TV is dusting itself off to promote 4K and OLED in the wake of 3D’s failure to
catch. While both technologies deliver a superior viewing experience, 4K will
remain too expensive with far too little content to generate much consumer traction.
OLED, too, may take much longer to catch on given the expense and consumer's
preference for big screens on a budget. If TV sales have any hope of lifting
over a steadily eroding base in 2013, it will be due to a general recovery in
consumer spending – not a technological breakthrough.
4. Cord cutters continue not to materialize: Like the Mayan end-of-the-world, the long-rumored wave of cord cutters
will not materialize and traditional pay TV providers will continue to add
subscribers. Cable TV is clearly under stress in North America and Europe, but
IPTV and Satellite pay TV subs will continue to grow. We'll hear more about "cord nevers" but they too will not be a significant factor in pay TV subscription
trends in 2013.
5. An Apple TV arrives – and underwhelms: No company in the tech world elicits rumor-mongering like Apple, where
speculation has run rampant all 2012 that the company would shake up the
broadcast TV world with an Apple TV (or iTV). Enough leaks have trickled forth from suppliers and from CEO Tim Cook himself that
it's safe to say the company is cooking something up, so let’s assume that an
Apple iTV does arrive in 2013. It’s likely that the broadcast deals required to
deliver “tv as apps” won’t be hammered out, certainly not with a substantial
number of content providers. The TV product itself is likely to offer an
innovative and engaging user interface and content discovery features, but it
won’t work the equivalent revolution on video content that iTunes did to the
music industry.
