Monday, February 11, 2013

Pay TV's Future: Curation, Not a la Carte

Monday February 11, 2013 – Greg Scoblete

"I bought a bourgeois house in the Hollywood hills, with a trunk-load of hundred thousand dollar bills. Man came by to hook up my cable TV, we settled in for the night my baby and me. We switched ’round and ’round ’til half-past dawn. There was fifty-seven channels and nothin’ on." - Bruce Springsteen

When the Boss sang "57 Channels (And Nothin' On)" the year was 1992. Fast forward to today and Springsteen's channel-surfing woes would be much, much worse.

This over-abundance of content has naturally led to a lot of frustration. On the consumer side, there's the sense that the majority of their cable bill goes to pay for channels they don't watch. For pay TV providers it creates a complicated user experience that manifests itself in an impenetrable grid/program guide that everyone agrees is cumbersome in an age of visually rich user interfaces.

One solution that's frequently bandied about is "unbundling" or "a la carte." Rather than group channels together into various service tiers, pay TV operators could, the theory goes, simply let consumers pick, chose and pay for only the channels they're interested in seeing. In practice a la carte simply isn't feasible given today's market structure. While it's true that sports packages consume a disproportionate share of an operator's programming costs, smaller, niche channels may struggle to stay viable when their reach shrinks, as it naturally would in any unbundling scheme.

But there is a new, alternative future coming into view, and that is "curation." Rather than sift through an endless channel guide, pay TV operators will present their customers with a selection of content that they believe is of interest, using recommendation algorithms in the same way that Netflix is able to surface shows you may enjoy. They will also enable greater customization. At CES, the cloud-based user interface firm ActiveVideo showed off technology that would allow pay TV subscribers to create customized channel clusters based on themes (sports, science, etc.) with live video thumbnails for each channel grouping.

Cisco also stressed content personalization during its CES press conference. Their new "Snowflake" interface, which will be rolled out to service providers as part of Cisco's Videoscape Unity package, combines multiple content sources -- pay TV channels, video-on-demand, YouTube, social networks -- into an experience that can be personalized to each member of the home. The same content recommendation algorithms that Netflix and Amazon use to such great effect are being ported over to cable and IPTV providers to deliver this personalized experience.

In the curated future, you'll still subscribe to hundreds of channels, but you'll only see those that you're interested in. You will have, in effect, the illusion of a la carte, if not the trimmed bill that should accompany it.

Looking ahead, it's also possible that this curated approach will suck more wind out of Apple's (still opaque) TV plans. Aside from Siri integration and an elegant display, the big hope underpinning an Apple foray into TV is the notion that they will be able to force an a la carte approach on pay TV providers. If consumers are getting something close to the a la carte experience from their pay TV providers, they'll be less tempted to jump ship for a "virtual MSOs." At least, that's the theory.